What should the countries of Central Asia expect from the new American administration? Will it embrace , modify, or reject, the new strategy advanced by the Trump Administration? To what extent will it advance open rule, American investment, security, and regional coordination? How will US policy towards China, Russia and Iran affect the region and will Washington address that issue as well?
Our panel of speakers with in-depth knowledge of the Washington policy-making landscape answered these question and more.
Amb. Robert Blake, Senior Director, McLarty Associates
Amb. George Krol, Associate, Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies
S. Enders Wimbush, Distinguished Fellow for Strategic Studies, American Foreign policy Council
S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.
When: Wednesday, February 24, 2021, 10-11:15 AM EST
How have countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus responded to COVID-19 and how are they planning to recover and rebuild? The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute invites you to the presentation of the International Monetary Funds' Regional Economic Outlook for Central Asia and the Caucasus, published on October 19, 2020. This important study offers a positive account of mitigation measures but cautionary words for the future. Our speaker was Dr. Subir Lall, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund. S. Frederick Starr chaired and moderated.
When: Monday, December 21, 2020, 10 - 11 AM EST
In February 2020, the U.S. released a new Strategy for Central Asia, subtitled “Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity.” Since then, the world has changed. How is this Strategy being implemented? This Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Forum discussion will focus on the concrete steps to implement America’s Strategy towards Central Asia.
Our guest speaker Lisa Curtis, Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council, The White House, discussed initiatives undertaken as part of the new strategy.
This discussion was Moderated by: S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.
When: Friday, October 16, 2020 at 10am EDT
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program
Silk Road Paper
The COVID-19 crisis represents not only an unprecedented economic disruption but also an opportunity for Central Asia. A specific economic policy response may trigger either game-changing reforms that can facilitate the development of full-fledged market institutions or lead to a protracted crisis that would jeopardize almost 30-year long market economy transition progress. As it is rather unclear where the recovery pendulum will make its final swing, the current situation provides fruitful soil for various assumptions. This paper proposes and examines four scenarios of economic response strategies for the region as a whole, and for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, that result in unique development trajectories. The paper employs the foresight methodology to build four scenarios related to the situation after the lockdown is fully lifted. The scenarios serve the purpose of helping decision makers to embark on informed decisions while shaping anti-crisis measures and better understand causality mechanisms behind their policy choices.
Scenario 1 (Protectionist Autarky): Stability upheld, limited reforms, increased role of the state and protectionism.
Scenario 2 (Impactful Diversification): Increased social support, augmented role of the private sector, comprehensive diversification and enhanced regionalization.
Scenario 3 (Inertial Asymmetry): Selective support measures, inequality-conducive, restricted diversification and limited reforms, “business-as-usual” commodity market, growing regionalization.
Scenario 4 (Unleashed Bazaar): Major institutional reforms, FDI-oriented economic openness, leapfrogging from stagnant to advanced emerging markets.
H.E. Yerzhan Ashikbayev, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan
Ambassador Bolat Nurgaliyev, Deputy Chairman of Foreign Policy Research Institute
S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC
Svante Cornell, Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
When: Wednesday, July 8, 2020 at 10am EDT