Svante E. Cornell, Halil Karaveli and Boris Ajeganov

November, 2016, pp. 112

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IMF Economic Outlook Caucasus Central Asia

CACI FORUM

IMF Economic Outlook on Caucasus and Central Asia: Structural Transformation Needed

Wednesday, 30 November 2016, from 5 to 7 p.m.

Light reception with Georgian wines at 5; main program at 5:30 

A decline in commodity prices and slowing in key economic partners such as Russia and China, had a significant impact on the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Regional growth is projected to average only 1.3 percent this year, representing a dramatic decrease in economic activity compared with growth rates of the early 2000s. According to the IMF, next year the region's economies should turn a corner, with average growth reaching 2.6 percent. Medium-term prospects remain weak, however, with growth projected to average 4 percent in the 2018–21 period, half that in 2000–14.

These and other important economic topics will be discussed as part of the Regional Economic Outlook Report, the latest IMF release on the Caucasus and Central Asia. The special focus of this year's presentation is Kazakhstan: the discussion will review this country's macroeconomic and structural policy response to shocks that began in late 2014, and will examine prospects for the medium term.

Speakers:

Juha Kahkonen, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Dept., IMF

Mark Horton, Mission Chief, Kazakhstan, IMF

Moderator:

Mamuka Tsereteli, Research Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 
 
Location: 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC  20036

Click here to RSVP and register

Published in Forums & Events

European View, June 2016, Volume 15, Issue 1, pp 97–109

Svante E. Cornell, The fallacy of ‘compartmentalisation’: the West and Russia from Ukraine to Syria

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In the post-Soviet space as well as the Middle East, Western leaders have largely failed to heed ample evidence that the goals of the Russian leadership are fundamentally opposed to those of the EU and the US. Whereas Moscow seeks to counter Western influence and roll back the US’s role in the world, the West has proposed a win–win approach, seeking to convince Moscow that its ‘true’ interests should lead it to cooperate with the West. When this has not worked, Western leaders have ‘compartmentalised’, isolating areas of agreement from areas of disagreement. This approach has come to the end of the road because the assumptions that undergird it are false. So long as Western powers fail to understand the fundamental incompatibility of their interests with the deeply anti-Western interests of the current power brokers in the Kremlin, they are unlikely to develop policies that achieve success.

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Svante E. Cornell is Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Center affiliated with the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

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CACI Forum

Wednesday, March 23, 2016, from 5 to 7 p.m. 

(reception at 5 p.m. with Georgian wine, followed by the main program at 5:30)

 

Russia's seizure of Crimea and Russia's ongoing military campaign in Syria have transformed the strategic landscape from the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea region to the Caspian area. Grave tensions between Russia and Turkey were mounting even before Putin and Erdogan launched into a florid and vituperative war of words, which continues unabated. 

Our speakers will delve into the many levels of this confrontation, offer important perspectives on how it is affecting security and economic life in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and suggest where it all might lead.

A video recording of this event can be viewed on the SAIS Events channel on Youtube.

Speakers:
    Eric Edelman, Roger Hertog Distinguished Practitioner-in-Residence at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, SAIS
    Avinoam Idan, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program 
    Vladislav Inozemtsev, Director and Founder, Center for Post-Industrial Studies, Moscow
    Olga Oliker, Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia ProgramCSIS 
    Kurt Volker, Executive Director, McCain Institute, and former US Ambassador to NATO

 Moderator:  Svante Cornell, Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 

Location: 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave.,  NW
Washington, DC  20036

Click here to RSVP and register

Click here to sign up for CACI Forum mailing list

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Published in Forums & Events

IMFCACI Forum

IMF Economic Outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia:  Reforms Needed to Weather Shocks from Commodity Prices and Russia

Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015, from 5 to 7 p.m.

(reception at 5 p.m. with Georgian wine, followed by the main program at 5:30)

This event can be viewed on the SAIS events channel.

Large external shocks, including lower commodity prices and slowdown in key trading partners, including Russia and China, has weakened economic growth prospects and raised vulnerabilities in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) Region. What are the challenges and policy trade-offs facing policy makers?  What would be the appropriate fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies?  How are the banking sectors faring?  Which structural reforms are essential for medium-term growth and job creation? 
 
These and other topics will be discussed as part of the latest Regional Economic Outlook Report for the Caucasus and Central Asia that the International Monetary Fund has released.

 
SPEAKERS:

Juha Kähkönen
Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF

Edward Gemayel
Mission Chief, Kyrgyz Republic, IMF

MODERATOR:  S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 

 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave.,  NW
Washington, DC  20036

Click here to RSVP and register

 

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