goble-saluteCACI FORUM

A Salute to Paul Goble:
Featuring Paul Goble's Prognoses on
the Future of the 'Eurasian Heartland'

Wednesday, September 14, 2016, from 5 to 7 p.m.
(reception at 5 p.m., followed by the main program at 5:30)

This special forum, organized jointly with The Jamestown Foundation, will honor Paul Goble, eminent scholar and expert on Eastern Europe and Central Asia.  Paul will share with us his view on the prospects of states and people in this important strategic region, which includes the Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as the Baltic countries and Ukraine. Several of Paul's long-time friends, colleagues, and professional associates will comment on his intellectual contribution to the study of the area stretched from Eastern Europe to Western China.  

  

Speakers include:

  Honorable S. Enders Wimbush, Distinguished Senior Fellow, The Jamestown Foundation, and Partner, StrateVarious, LLC

  H.E. Ambassador Marmei, Ambassador of Estonia to the United States

  Blair Ruble, Vice President for Programs, Woodrow Wilson Center; Senior Advisor, Kennan Institute

  S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 

Location: 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave.,  NW
Washington, DC  20036

Click here to RSVP and register

 

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Op-Ed, The New York Times, August 1, 2016

Halil M. Karaveli, "Turkey's Fractured State"

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GOTHENBURG, Sweden — The Turkish military is known to be a stronghold of Kemalism, the secularist and nationalist ideology of the founder of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. So when the Islamic conservative Justice and Development Party, known as the A.K.P., came to power in 2002, many then feared that the military would stage a coup in the name of Kemalism.

Yet when a coup in Turkey did finally materialize, on July 15, it wasn’t Kemalists who were blamed, but the Gulenists, members of an Islamic fraternity led by the cleric Fethullah Gulen, who has lived in exile in the United States since 1999. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, echoed by the Turkish military’s general staff, claimed that what they call the “Fethullah Gulen terrorist organization” was behind the failed ouster.

Read the complete article here.

Halil M. Karaveli is a senior fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road Studies Program.

Article, The Turkey Analyst, July 20, 2016

Svante E. Cornell, "Is Turkey Becoming a Banana Republic?"

The failed military coup in Turkey provides a window into just how unstable and vulnerable Turkey has become. The coup is a unique but not isolated event, more than anything a symptom of the decay of Turkish state institutions under Erdogan. The sizable post-coup repression will make matters worse, in fact increasing rather than decreasing the risk of further violence, including a new coup. Turkey is now more a problem in its own right than an ally to help solve regional problems.

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European View, June 2016, Volume 15, Issue 1, pp 97–109

Svante E. Cornell, The fallacy of ‘compartmentalisation’: the West and Russia from Ukraine to Syria

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In the post-Soviet space as well as the Middle East, Western leaders have largely failed to heed ample evidence that the goals of the Russian leadership are fundamentally opposed to those of the EU and the US. Whereas Moscow seeks to counter Western influence and roll back the US’s role in the world, the West has proposed a win–win approach, seeking to convince Moscow that its ‘true’ interests should lead it to cooperate with the West. When this has not worked, Western leaders have ‘compartmentalised’, isolating areas of agreement from areas of disagreement. This approach has come to the end of the road because the assumptions that undergird it are false. So long as Western powers fail to understand the fundamental incompatibility of their interests with the deeply anti-Western interests of the current power brokers in the Kremlin, they are unlikely to develop policies that achieve success.

Click to read

Svante E. Cornell is Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Center affiliated with the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

Joint Center Publications

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Biweekly Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

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Biweekly Turkey Analyst

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Silk Road Papers and Monographs