Confronting Global Challenges in the CAMCA Region
CAMCA (Central Asia, Mongolia, the Caucasus and Afghanistan) is a vulnerable region grappling with a range of issues including low connectivity, economic dependency, food security, poor governance, corruption, and terrorism - all exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Not fully recovered from the pandemic's negative impacts, the war in Ukraine poses a new set of political and economic challenges. In addition, the reemergence of the Taliban and terrorist syndicate in Afghanistan has created a new phase of security challenges for the entire region. The presentation by the spring 2022 Rumsfeld Fellows examined the challenges posed to the CAMCA region by the pandemic, Taliban, and Ukrainian conflict, and suggest possible solutions.
When: Tuesday, May 3, 2022, 3:00-4:30 PM EST
Where: Middle East Institute, 1763 N St NW, Washington, DC 20036
Co-organizers: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC, The CAMCA Network and The Rumsfeld Foundation
CAMCA Conversations - The Mongolian Economy: Post-pandemic Strategy
Co-organized by the CAMCA Forum founders:
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC, The CAMCA Network The Rumsfeld Foundation
Lessons from Kyrgyzstan's Experiment with Parliamentarism
Mongolia, heavily reliant on trade with China, faced continuous challenges throughout the pandemic to maintain steady functioning of its economy. China’s ongoing closure of its border, as well as budget constraints, negatively affected the Mongolian economy. As a response to these challenges, the Government of Mongolia has proposed the economic 'New Revival Policy', which is aiming to not only solve the immediate challenges, but address the fundamental economic obstacles.
Speakers:
Tuvshinzaya Gantulga – Visiting Fellow, National Institute for Strategic Studies
Dulguun Baasandavaa – Advisor, Ministry of Economy and Development of Mongolia
Irmuun Demberel – Advisor, Prime Minister of Mongolia
Khulan Davaadorj – Founder and CEO, Lhamour
Moderator:
Svante Cornell – Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at American Foreign Policy Council
When: Wednesday, March 23, 2022,
9:00 AM EST (9:00 PM Ulaanbaatar time)
The event will also be live-streamed on the CACI Facebook page and the Silk Road Studies website.
CAMCA Conversations feature unique and fresh insights from members of the CAMCA Network − rising leaders committed to cultivating intraregional cooperation. Tune in to hear the latest on current events and topics of importance to the CAMCA region directly from some of the region’s top talent and influencers across all sectors.
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[Video Posted] CAMCA Forum Event: Developing Capital Market and Regional Funding Institutions in CAMCA: Important Tool for Post Covid-19 Recovery
Developing Capital Market and Regional Funding Institutions in CAMCA: Important Tool for Post Covid-19 Recovery
A joint event of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, the CAMCA Network and Rumsfeld Foundation
The post Covid-19 economic recovery should be driven by private sector development, and the process will require significant funding sources from different private sources. What are the regional potential sources of funding? What government policies could facilitate enhancement of these funding institutions? What are the opportunities for the foreign private funding institutions to join forces with the regional Players?
Moderator:
- Dr. Mamuka Tsereteli, Senior Fellow, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
Speakers:
- Baurzhan Bektemirov, Chief Economist, Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) and Member of the Management Board of AIFC Authority
- Atabek Nazirov, Chairman, Capital Market Development Agency of Uzbekistan
- Nika Kurdiani, Deputy CEO, TBC Bank, Georgia
- Abdullo Kurbanov, Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board of Alif Capital, Tajikistan, CAMCA Network Member
- Irmuun Demberel, Vice President of the Mongolian Economic Cooperation Confederation, CAMCA Network Member
When: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 at 10am EDT
The event was livestreamed on the CAMCA Regional Forum Facebook Page and is also available down below
[Video Posted] CACI Online Forum: Stress Test for the Eurasian Economic Union
Stress Test for the Eurasian Economic Union
Only recently many considered large, integrated economic and political zones to be signs of the future. But the collapse of oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, and new forms of multipolarity are refocusing many on national needs and global rather than bloc developments. Given this, how does the Eurasian Economic Union look today? What is its future for members, and how should non-members regard it? This Forum will address these and related questions.
Speakers:
Stephen Blank, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Mamuka Tsereteli, Senior Fellow, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC
Moderator: S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC
When: Thursday, May 28, 2020 at 11am EDT
The event was live-streamed on our Facebook page and is now available on Youtube.
News
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New Article Series on Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus
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CACI Initiative on Religion and the Secular State in Central Asia and the Caucasus
In 2016, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program launched an initiative on documenting the interrelationship of religion and the secular state in the region. This initiative departed from the fact that little systematic reserch had been undertaken on the subject thus far. While there was and remains much commentary and criticism of religious policy in the region, there was no comprehensive analysis available on the interrelationship of religion and the state in any regional state, let alone the region as a whole. The result of this initiative has been the publication of six Silk Road Papers studying the matter in regional states, with more to come. In addition, work is ongoing on a volume putting the regional situation in the context of the Muslim world as a whole.
Case Studies
Each study below can be freely downloaded in PDF format.
Azerbaijan's Formula: Secular Governance and Civil Nationhood
By Svante E. Cornell, Halil Karaveli, and Boris Ajeganov
November 2016
Religion and the Secular State in Kazakhstan
By Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr and Julian Tucker
April 2018
Religion and the Secular State in Uzbekistan
Svante E. Cornell and Jacob Zenn
June 2018
Religion and the Secular State in Kyrgyzstan
Johan Engvall
June 2020
Religion and the Secular State in Turkmenistan
Victoria Clement
June 2020Articles and Analyses
Svante E. Cornell, "Religion and the State in Central Asia," in Ilan Berman, ed., Wars of Ideas: Theology, Interpretation and Power in the Muslim World, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.
Svante E. Cornell, "Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go?" in Religion, Conflict and Stability in the Former Soviet Union, eds. Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick, Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2018.
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Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's Post-Conflict Territories
In 2010, the CACI-SRSP Joint Center cooperated with Eldar Ismailov and Nazim Muzaffarli of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Caucasus to produce a study of the methodology and process for the rehabilitation of the occupied territories in Azerbaijan. The study was written in the hope that it would prove useful in the aftermath of a negotiated solution to the conflict.Such a resolution nevertheless did not materialize. At present, however, it appears that some of these territories are returning to Azerbaijani control as a result of the military conflict that began in late September, 2020. While it is regrettable that this did not come to pass as a result of negotiations, it is clear that the challenge of rehabilitating territories is as pressing today as it would be in the event of a peaceful resolution - if not more, given the likelihood that such a solution would have included a time-table and provided the Government of Azerbaijan and international institutions time for planning.
It is clear that the study is a product of a different time, as much has changed since 2010. We fully expcect many updates and revisions to be needed should the recommendations in this study be implemented today. That said, we believe the methodoloy of the study and its conclusions remain relevant and would therefore like to call attention to this important study, published in English, Russian and Azerbaijani versions.
Click to download:
BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR THE REHABILITATION OF AZERBAIJAN’S POST-CONFLICT TERRITORIES
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Resources on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
Resources on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program have a long track record of covering the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict. This page presents the key resources and most recent analysis.
In 2017, Palgrave published the first book-length study of the International Politics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, edited by Svante Cornell. The book concluded by arguing that if international efforts to resolve the conflict are not stepped up, “the ‘four-day’ war of April 2016 will appear a minor skirmish compared to what is sure to follow”.
In 2015, CACI & SRSP released the Silk Road Paper “A Western Strategy for the South Caucasus”, which included a full page of recommendations for the U.S. and EU on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. These are reproduced below:
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Develop a substantial and prolonged Western initiative on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
o This initiative must be led by the United States, in close consultation with its European partners – primarily the EU Commission and External Action Service, and France. Barring some process to reinvigorate the Minsk Process – a doubtful proposition given Western-Russian relations in the foreseeable future – Western leaders must be prepared to bypass that process, utilizing it where appropriate but focusing their initiative on developing direct negotiations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.
o The U.S. and its European partners must abandon the practice of relying solely on the Minsk Group co-chairs to resolve the Karabakh conflict. These diplomats have contributed greatly to formulating a workable framework agreement. However, strong and sustained U.S. Government leadership from the top level is needed to complement or, failing that, to replace the Minsk Process. In practice, this means the expressed support of the President, involvement of the White House, and leadership manifested in the appointment of a distinguished citizen as Special Envoy for the resolution of the conflict.
o The EU must take a more clearly defined and substantial role in the process, by integrating to the highest degree possible the French co-chairmanship of the Minsk Group with EU institutions. While Washington will need to take the lead on the political side, it would be natural for the EU to take the lead in organizing an international development program for the currently occupied Azerbaijani provinces and Karabakh itself. That effort, too, would need to be led by a senior EU figure.
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In 2011, CACI & SRSP helped launch an extensive study of the steps needed for the post-conflict rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's occupied territories, in cooperation with Eldar Ismailov and Nazim Muzaffarli of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Caucasus. The monograph "Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's Post-Conflict Territories" can be accessed here.
More background resources:
Svante E. Cornell, "Can America Stop a Wider War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?", The National Interest, October 2020
Brenda Shaffer and Svante E. Cornell, Occupied Elsewhere: Selective Policies on Occupation, Foundation For Defense of Democracies, January 2020.
Brenda Shaffer and Svante E. Cornell, "The U.S. Needs to Declare War on Proxies", Foreign Policy, January 27, 2020
Svante E. Cornell, “The Raucous Caucasus”, American Interest, May 2017
Svante E. Cornell, Small Nations and Great Powers: A Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in the Caucasus, RoutledgeCurzon, 2001.
Svante E. Cornell, The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Uppsala University, 1999
More recent analysis:
“Turkey Seeks to Counter Russia in the Black Sea-Caucasus Region,” Turkey Analyst, 10/5/20, Emil Avdaliani
“Turkey’s Commitment to Azerbaijan’s Defense Shows the Limits of Ankara’s Tilt to Moscow,” Turkey Analyst, 9/25/20, Turan Suleymanov & Bahruz Babayev
“Cross-Border Escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 9/25/20, Natalia Konarzewska
“Russia and Turkey: Behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes?”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 8/31/20, Avinoam Idan
“Armenia and the U.S.: Time for New Thinking?”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 10/2/19, Eduard Abrahamyan.
“Why Washington Must Re-Engage the Caucasus” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 7/8/19, Stephen Blank
“Azerbaijan’s Defense Industry Reform”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 5/7/19, Tamerlan Vahabov.
“Military Procurements on Armenia's and Azerbaijan's Defense Agendas”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3/27/19, Ilgar Gurbanov
“Armenia's New Government Struggles with Domestic and External Opposition,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3/20/19, Armen Grigorian.
“Bolton's Caucasian Tour and Russia's Reaction”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 12/17/18, Eduard Abrahamyan.