CACI and CSIS Forum Invitation: Tokayev's Kazakhstan: A New Reform Agenda
CACI and CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program cordially invites you to
Tokayev’s Kazakhstan: A New Reform Agenda
This year’s transition of power in Kazakhstan marks a turning point for Kazakhstan and the Central Asian region as a whole. Following the resignation of Kazakhstan’s First President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, long-time Senate Speaker, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Kassymjomart Tokayev won a June 2019 snap presidential election. Nazarbayev maintains a central role including chairing the National Security Council, and recently gained additional influence over personnel appointments. While Tokayev has pledged continuity with Nazarbayev’s legacy, his September address to the nation also indicated a new urge for political reform, including what Tokayev labeled the “Listening State.”
The CSIS and Central Asia-Caucasus Institute invite you to a discussion with leading Kazakh analysts, who will provide their perspectives on Kazakhstan’s direction under President Tokayev.
Please join us for a discussion with
Askar Nursha
Dean, School of Public Policy and Law, Almaty Management Universityand
Shavkat Sabirov
Director, Institute for Security and Cooperation in Central AsiaIntroductions by
Frederick Starr
Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program
Moderated by
Jeffrey Mankoff
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSISFriday, November 1, 2019
1:00 p.m. - 2:30 p.m.
2nd Floor Conference Room
Center for Strategic & International Studies
1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
CACI Forum with the Rumsfeld Fellows Presentation
INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE IN CAMCA REGION: Current Trends and Growing Opportunities
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at the American Foreign Policy Council presented this Fall's team of Rumsfeld Fellows, emerging leaders from the Caucasus, Afghanistan, Mongolia, and Central Asia - which the alumni themselves call the 'CAMCA Region.'
Fall 2019 Rumsfeld Fellows include:
Ms. Ellaha Shaheen (Afghanistan) Market Access Negotiator at the Permanent Mission of Afghanistan to the World Trade Organization
Mr. Aram Pinajyan (Armenia) Deputy CEO and Chief Risk Officer at HSBC Bank Armenia CJSC
Ms. Rasmina Gurbatova (Azerbaijan) Founder, Owner and Designer of Resm Jewelry
Ms. Nona Mamulashvili (Georgia) Founder and Chairwoman of the Caucasus Economic Policy Institute
Ms. Rusudan Mamatsashvili (Georgia) First Deputy Head at the National Tourism Administration of Georgia
Ms. Dinara Chaizhunussova (Kazakhstan) Chairman of the Board of Trustees of “Bolashak” Corporate Foundation
Mr. Ruslan Assaubayev (Kazkahstan) Managing Partner and Regional Development Director at Korkem Telecom
Mr. Mirbek Asangariev (Kyrgyzstan) Entrepreneur and Founder and CEO of eco-friendly business Hotel “Bridges” in Bishkek
Mr. Batzaya Batsaikhan (Mongolia) Co-founder and CEO of Unread Media
Ms. Enkhzul Dambajantsan (Mongolia) Chief Operating Officer of the Mongolian Stock Exchange
Mr. Shuhrat Mirzoev (Tajikistan) Managing Partner and Founder of IRSHAD Consulting LLC
Mr. Sardor Mukhamedaliev (Uzbekistan) Chief Business Development Officer of the Swiss-based leading online shopping marketplace ZoomMall
Moderator: S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC
Where: Middle East Institute: 1763 N Street NW, 20036
When: Thursday, October 31, 2018 from 2:00 - 4:00 pm,
Scroll down for a few video clips of the presentation.
CACI Forum: Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia with Presentations
Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia
Growth remains broadly stable in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), but it is still well below the long-term potential for the region — and too low if the region is to raise living standards to the level of other emerging economies in Europe and Asia. The challenge is to leverage good domestic policies, increased economic diversification, and stronger international cooperation to generate higher and more inclusive growth that lifts up the prospects of all CCA citizens. This task is complicated by global uncertainties, weaknesses in the banking sectors, and elevated public debt. This event coincides with the launch of the IMF's Departmental Paper: Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia presented by one of the authors, Mercedes Vera-Martin.
Speakers:
Juha Kähkönen, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Mercedes Vera Martin, Deputy Division Chief, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Moderator: S. Frederick Starr,Chairman Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at the American Foreign Policy Council
Where: Middle East Institute: 1319 18th Street NW, 20036
When: Wednesday, June 4, 2019 from 4:00 - 5:30 pm,
The PowerPoint Presentations from both speakers are available below.
CACI, IREX, and USAGM Panel Discussion Invitation: Taking Stock
Taking Stock Invitation: One Year After Uzbekistan Pledges Reforms
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, alongside of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, and IREX are hosting a panel discussion to mark the first anniversary of the new era of cooperation between Washington and Tashkent. One year after Uzbek President Mirziyoyev’s historic May 2018 visit to the United States, a panel of experts will discuss what changes are underway in the strategic Central Asia nation. Topics of discussion include U.S.-Uzbek cooperation, new international activities, and reformation in the economic and media sectors of the country.
Featuring:
His Excellency Javlon Vakhabov, Uzbek Ambassador to the United States
Lisa Curtis, Deputy Assistant to the President and National Security Council Senior Director for South and Central Asia
Dr. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia -Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program
Navbahor Imamova, Journalist, VOA Uzbek Service
Moderator: Alicia Phillips Mandaville IREX Vice President for Global Programs
Where: IREX, Suite 600, 1275 K St. NW, Washington, DC
When: Thursday, May 30, 2019 from 2:00 - 3:30 pm,
RSVP: Click HERE to register
CACI Forum with the Rumsfeld Fellows Invitation
CACI Forum with the Rumsfeld Fellows - Spring 2019
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute presents this Spring's team of Rumsfeld Fellows, emerging leaders from the Caucasus, Afghanistan, Mongolia, and Central Asia - which the alumni themselves have dubbed the 'CAMCA Region.'
The region is facing critical questions: are the CAMCA countries globally competitive for investors? What is being done to remove the impediments?
At this Forum Rumsfeld Fellows will introduce an idea of the Investment Harbor, as a mechanism to facilitate investments, trade and greater regional and global connectivity of the CAMCA countries.
Spring 2019 Rumsfeld Fellows include:
Mr. Assadullah Zamir (Afghanistan), CEO and Partner of Sabzwar Agribusiness and Food Services and Founder of Abreshum Venture.
Mr. Fuad Karimov (Azerbaijan), Director of Professional Support Services LLC.
Mr. Giorgi Arveladze (Georgia), 36, is the Founder and Managing Partner of Ubique, a Tbilisi based real estate development firm.
Ms. Mariam Lashkhi (Georgia), Deputy Chairperson at Georgia’s Innovation and Technology Agency (GITA).
Dr. Almazbek Beishenaliev (Kyrgyzstan), Director of the Regional Institute of Central Asia in Bishkek.
Ms. Jenny Jenish kyzy (Kyrgyzstan), Chairperson of the Association of Social Entrepreneurs (ASE) of Kyrgyzstan and Founder “New Schools Foundation” and “J-Invest Consulting” firm.
Mr. Olzhas Khudaibergenov (Kazakhstan), Founder and Senior Partner at the Center for Strategic Initiatives LLP (CSI).
Mr. Nurtas Janibekov (Kazakhstan), Adviser to the Governor of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC).
Ms. Chimguundari Navaan-Yunden (Mongolia), Ambassador-at- Large and Director of the Investment Research Center at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Mongolia.
Ms. Nargis Esufbekova (Tajikistan), Head of Secretariat of the Development Coordination Council (DCC) in Tajikistan
Ms. Maral Ilyasova (Turkmenistan), appraisement expert at the Appraisal Company “Turkmen Expert” ES.
Mr. Bokhodir Ayupov (Uzbekistan), Consultant at the Technopark of Software Development and IT.
Moderator: S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at AFPC
Where: Middle East Institute: 1319 18th Street NW, 20036
When: Thursday, May 2, 2019 from 12:30 - 2:00 pm,
RSVP: Click HERE to register
News
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New Article Series on Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus
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CACI Initiative on Religion and the Secular State in Central Asia and the Caucasus
In 2016, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program launched an initiative on documenting the interrelationship of religion and the secular state in the region. This initiative departed from the fact that little systematic reserch had been undertaken on the subject thus far. While there was and remains much commentary and criticism of religious policy in the region, there was no comprehensive analysis available on the interrelationship of religion and the state in any regional state, let alone the region as a whole. The result of this initiative has been the publication of six Silk Road Papers studying the matter in regional states, with more to come. In addition, work is ongoing on a volume putting the regional situation in the context of the Muslim world as a whole.
Case Studies
Each study below can be freely downloaded in PDF format.
Azerbaijan's Formula: Secular Governance and Civil Nationhood
By Svante E. Cornell, Halil Karaveli, and Boris Ajeganov
November 2016
Religion and the Secular State in Kazakhstan
By Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr and Julian Tucker
April 2018
Religion and the Secular State in Uzbekistan
Svante E. Cornell and Jacob Zenn
June 2018
Religion and the Secular State in Kyrgyzstan
Johan Engvall
June 2020
Religion and the Secular State in Turkmenistan
Victoria Clement
June 2020Articles and Analyses
Svante E. Cornell, "Religion and the State in Central Asia," in Ilan Berman, ed., Wars of Ideas: Theology, Interpretation and Power in the Muslim World, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.
Svante E. Cornell, "Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go?" in Religion, Conflict and Stability in the Former Soviet Union, eds. Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick, Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2018.
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Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's Post-Conflict Territories
In 2010, the CACI-SRSP Joint Center cooperated with Eldar Ismailov and Nazim Muzaffarli of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Caucasus to produce a study of the methodology and process for the rehabilitation of the occupied territories in Azerbaijan. The study was written in the hope that it would prove useful in the aftermath of a negotiated solution to the conflict.Such a resolution nevertheless did not materialize. At present, however, it appears that some of these territories are returning to Azerbaijani control as a result of the military conflict that began in late September, 2020. While it is regrettable that this did not come to pass as a result of negotiations, it is clear that the challenge of rehabilitating territories is as pressing today as it would be in the event of a peaceful resolution - if not more, given the likelihood that such a solution would have included a time-table and provided the Government of Azerbaijan and international institutions time for planning.
It is clear that the study is a product of a different time, as much has changed since 2010. We fully expcect many updates and revisions to be needed should the recommendations in this study be implemented today. That said, we believe the methodoloy of the study and its conclusions remain relevant and would therefore like to call attention to this important study, published in English, Russian and Azerbaijani versions.
Click to download:
BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR THE REHABILITATION OF AZERBAIJAN’S POST-CONFLICT TERRITORIES
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Resources on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
Resources on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program have a long track record of covering the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict. This page presents the key resources and most recent analysis.
In 2017, Palgrave published the first book-length study of the International Politics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, edited by Svante Cornell. The book concluded by arguing that if international efforts to resolve the conflict are not stepped up, “the ‘four-day’ war of April 2016 will appear a minor skirmish compared to what is sure to follow”.
In 2015, CACI & SRSP released the Silk Road Paper “A Western Strategy for the South Caucasus”, which included a full page of recommendations for the U.S. and EU on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. These are reproduced below:
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Develop a substantial and prolonged Western initiative on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
o This initiative must be led by the United States, in close consultation with its European partners – primarily the EU Commission and External Action Service, and France. Barring some process to reinvigorate the Minsk Process – a doubtful proposition given Western-Russian relations in the foreseeable future – Western leaders must be prepared to bypass that process, utilizing it where appropriate but focusing their initiative on developing direct negotiations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.
o The U.S. and its European partners must abandon the practice of relying solely on the Minsk Group co-chairs to resolve the Karabakh conflict. These diplomats have contributed greatly to formulating a workable framework agreement. However, strong and sustained U.S. Government leadership from the top level is needed to complement or, failing that, to replace the Minsk Process. In practice, this means the expressed support of the President, involvement of the White House, and leadership manifested in the appointment of a distinguished citizen as Special Envoy for the resolution of the conflict.
o The EU must take a more clearly defined and substantial role in the process, by integrating to the highest degree possible the French co-chairmanship of the Minsk Group with EU institutions. While Washington will need to take the lead on the political side, it would be natural for the EU to take the lead in organizing an international development program for the currently occupied Azerbaijani provinces and Karabakh itself. That effort, too, would need to be led by a senior EU figure.
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In 2011, CACI & SRSP helped launch an extensive study of the steps needed for the post-conflict rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's occupied territories, in cooperation with Eldar Ismailov and Nazim Muzaffarli of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Caucasus. The monograph "Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's Post-Conflict Territories" can be accessed here.
More background resources:
Svante E. Cornell, "Can America Stop a Wider War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?", The National Interest, October 2020
Brenda Shaffer and Svante E. Cornell, Occupied Elsewhere: Selective Policies on Occupation, Foundation For Defense of Democracies, January 2020.
Brenda Shaffer and Svante E. Cornell, "The U.S. Needs to Declare War on Proxies", Foreign Policy, January 27, 2020
Svante E. Cornell, “The Raucous Caucasus”, American Interest, May 2017
Svante E. Cornell, Small Nations and Great Powers: A Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in the Caucasus, RoutledgeCurzon, 2001.
Svante E. Cornell, The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Uppsala University, 1999
More recent analysis:
“Turkey Seeks to Counter Russia in the Black Sea-Caucasus Region,” Turkey Analyst, 10/5/20, Emil Avdaliani
“Turkey’s Commitment to Azerbaijan’s Defense Shows the Limits of Ankara’s Tilt to Moscow,” Turkey Analyst, 9/25/20, Turan Suleymanov & Bahruz Babayev
“Cross-Border Escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 9/25/20, Natalia Konarzewska
“Russia and Turkey: Behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes?”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 8/31/20, Avinoam Idan
“Armenia and the U.S.: Time for New Thinking?”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 10/2/19, Eduard Abrahamyan.
“Why Washington Must Re-Engage the Caucasus” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 7/8/19, Stephen Blank
“Azerbaijan’s Defense Industry Reform”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 5/7/19, Tamerlan Vahabov.
“Military Procurements on Armenia's and Azerbaijan's Defense Agendas”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3/27/19, Ilgar Gurbanov
“Armenia's New Government Struggles with Domestic and External Opposition,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3/20/19, Armen Grigorian.
“Bolton's Caucasian Tour and Russia's Reaction”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 12/17/18, Eduard Abrahamyan.