The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 3 no. 4, 1 March 2010

ANALYSIS

Waiting for Başbuğ: The Aftermath of the Sledgehammer Operation Detentions
Gareth H. Jenkins
The recent detention of 68 serving and retired military personnel by the Turkish police on suspicion of planning a coup in 2003 has reinforced the deep divisions in Turkish society and escalated the already dangerous tensions between the country’s powerful armed forces and the civilian government. Although there have been arrests of serving and retired military personnel in the past – particularly during the controversial Ergenekon investigation – both the scale of the latest detentions and the claims on which they are based are without precedent. As a result, General İlker Başbuğ, the chief of the General Staff,  is now under intense pressure to react; particularly from his colleagues in the officer corps, the vast majority of whom regard the detentions as the latest move in a politically-motivated campaign of lies and disinformation which ultimately aims to destroy the military as an institution.

Will the Reversal of the Regime of Military Tutelage Encourage a Reinvention of Turkey's Secular Camp?
Halil M. Karaveli
The critical question today is whether the Turkish secularists will conclude that a reassessment of their ideological stance has become inevitable subsequent to the reversal of the regime of military tutelage. Not unlike the Islamists a decade ago, the seculars face the challenge to either broaden their appeal or concede defeat.  Without secular forces making a transition to liberalism, the democratic evolution of Islamic conservatism will remain uncertain.

What the Columnists Say
The detention of over fifty active and retired military personnel – among them several generals and former force commanders – accused of having planned to stage a coup in 2003, has led several commentators to conclude that Turkey has passed a critical threshold of great historic importance. Although the accusations against the military are dismissed by secularists, the general sense is that the military is being relegated to a subordinate role. There is nevertheless apprehension also among those who welcome the subjugation of the military that this development may not in itself be enough to secure full democratization. 

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.



The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.


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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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