The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 5 no. 2, 23 January 2011

ANALYSIS

How Much Security Will NATO’s Missile Defense Shield Provide for Turkey?
M. K. Kaya
By agreeing to deploy the Army Navy Transportable Radar Surveillance System (AN/TPY-2) on Turkish soil, the United States and Turkey have concluded by far the strategically most significant agreement in many years. By hosting the radar, Turkey has dispelled doubts regarding its alliance allegiances, while concurrently making itself a target of Iranian counter-measures. The crucial question for Turkey in the wake of the deployment in Malatya is the extent to which NATO’s missile defense shield will indeed provide it with comprehensive protection. Whether or not the possible security gains stand to be offset by new security threats arising is the vital question that begs for an answer, and that the Turkish authorities need to address.

Ankara and Baghdad: A Parting of Ways?
Richard Weitz
Until now, Turkey’s presence in Iraq has generally been encouraged by all major Iraqi groups. Turkey brings important diplomatic and economic assets to the partnership, especially in the economic dimension. Turkish officials have generally refrained from the more blatant intervention in Iraq’s affairs that has aroused popular animosities against Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States. But Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s confrontational policies against Sunni and Kurdish leaders have now alarmed Ankara about the risks of renewed violent sectarian strife in Turkey’s southern neighbor. If they put behind them their recent spat, Iraqi policy makers would recognize that Turkey could be Iraq’s best friend in a volatile region. Turkey’s interests require a strong but democratic Iraqi state ruled by a coalition of political forces that can promote domestic stability, national independence, and regional security.

What the Columnists Say
Turkey’s leading liberal columnists have all but lost their hope that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is going to fulfill the liberalizing mission that they had presumed that it shouldered. Indeed, there are even conservative, pro-AKP columnists that express astonishment at some of the policies of the AKP government. The prolonged detentions of dissidents who are accused of being terrorists, the ongoing mass arrests of Kurdish activists, the imprisonment of nearly one hundred journalists, the apparent unwillingness of the AKP government to change the draconian anti-terror laws and the penal code that severely curtail the expression of freedom lead liberals to ask aloud if the AKP has once and for all assumed the role as a typical, authoritarian Turkish state party. They also warn that the authoritarian measures of the government and the judiciary serve to de-legitimize the trials of the very real coup conspirators, and that Turkish democracy is imperiled.

From the January 9 issue

The Changing Object of Fear: The Arrest of Ilker Basbug
Gareth H. Jenkins
In the early hours of January 6, 2012, General İlker Başbuğ, who served as chief of the Turkish General Staff from 2008 to 2010, was arrested. For many, the arrest on terrorist charges will be regarded not so much as demonstrating that the General staff is no longer untouchable but that the Fethullah Gülen Movement has the power to imprison whoever it likes.

Turkey and Cyprus' Gas: More Troubles Ahead in 2012
Stephen Blank
New tension is brewing between Turkey and Cyprus after Cyprus’ and Israel’s enormous gas finds in the Eastern Mediterranean in 2010-11 and Turkey’s extremely negative reaction to those finds.

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by Halil M. Karaveli, October 2010.



The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published bi-weekly, and includes topical analysis, as well asa summary of the Turkish media debate. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli.

The Turkey Analyst welcomes article submission. Please contact Halil M. Karaveli, Managing Editor.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understanding of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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