The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 4 no. 22, 21 November 2011

ANALYSIS

Turkey and Syria: From Friendship to War?
Veysel Ayhan
The inability of the Baath regime in Damascus to bring the situation in the country under control has compelled Turkey to move against its erstwhile partner. As Turkey openly seeks to bring about regime change in Syria, it relies on diplomatic, political and economic instruments. Turkey can be expected to ask the member countries of the UN Security Council to impose further sanctions against Syria in the near future. In the event that such sanctions fail to bring about the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and in case a full-blown civil war erupts in Syria, Turkey may – as a last resort – seek, conjointly with the Arab countries a United Nations resolution allowing the use of force.

Turkey Falls Out with Russia: Another Sign of a Foreign Policy in Crisis
Stephen Blank
Wherever one looks, Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy is fading.  Although  Turco-Russian relations have not received the publicity of Turkey’s quarrels with Israel, those relations represent the latest example of this policy’s difficulties. The clash of Turkish-Russian interests are part of a larger theme. They underline that the core idea of Turkish foreign policy during the last years, the notion that Turkey can truly manage to have no problems with all of its neighbors and serenely navigate along the complex shoals of  Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus and gain leverage throughout these zones, has proven to be unustainable.

What the Columnists Say
Many liberal Turkish columnists continue to express the concern that Turkey may be reverting to its old, authoritarian habits. Influential liberal commentators such as Ahmet Altan, Hasan Cemal and Cengiz Çandar worry that the government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has abandoned any intention that it once might have had to pursue the democratization of Turkey, now that it is secure in power. These commentators, who until recently stood by the AKP government, have now turned highly critical of it, sharply criticizing in particular how the Kurdish issue is handled by the Turkish state. The waves of arrests of Kurdish activists and others, and the recent statement of Prime Minister Erdoğan that “there is a limit to the liberties” are seen as inauspicious signs. The point is also made that the unconditional support of the U.S. is further emboldening the AKP government, making it believe that it can silence any dissenting voices.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Reconciling Statism with Freedom: Turkey's Kurdish Opening
by Halil M. Karaveli, October 2010.



The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited by Halil M. Karaveli.

The Turkey Analyst welcomes article submissions.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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