The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 4 no. 20, 24 October 2011

ANALYSIS

Will Turkey Get a New Constitution that is a Societal Compact, and Not a Dictate of the State?
Halil M. Karaveli
The members of the constitutional reconciliation commission in the Turkish parliament that convened last week have been instructed to draft a constitution that enshrines liberty. It is also officially recognized that the new constitution of Turkey needs to be societal compact that reflects the pluralism of society. However, it is still a political tradition that puts the state above society that is the dominant force. The rulers of Turkey continue to adhere to the age-old Turkish political axiom that the state knows best, circumscribing true participatory democracy.

Turkey’s Anti-PKK Operation Faces Major Obstacles
Richard Weitz
The Turkish government has now responded with one of its largest counterinsurgency operations in years. The current Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq in pursuit of the PKK guerillas, differs from earlier operations in the larger number of troops involved within Turkey, their multiple points of entry into northern Iraq, the support the operation is receiving from foreign governments, including the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan, and the possibility that the current campaign will last longer and penetrate deeper than the previous cross-border operations that have occurred in recent years. Yet progress is difficult to measure since the PKK is using its traditional tactic of melting into the mountains and local population. There is a general recognition among Turkish officials as well as foreign and domestic military analysts that military means alone will not solve the country’s Kurdish problem. The Turkish military’s vigorous response to the latest attacks might at best deter further foreign backing for PKK actions against Turkey and provide political maneuvering room for the government.

What the Columnists Say
The Kurdish problem remains the main topic on the Turkish political agenda. There are basically two competing narratives: According to the view to which most Turkish commentators subscribe, the PKK has squandered the opportunity to resolve the conflict by once again resorting to violence because the organization allegedly is only interested in establishing control over the Kurdish southeast of Turkey; the AKP government on the other hand, is seen as having acted in good faith, as having been willing to accommodate most of the demands of the Kurds. According to the rival narrative, which is privileged by only very few commentators, the Turkish government has undermined the peace efforts by its attempt to silence the Kurdish nationalist movement, above all by the mass arrests of Kurdish activists. In the aftermath of the attack of the PKK last week that left two dozen Turkish soldiers dead, most commentators are nonetheless optimistic that Turkey will succeed in defeating the PKK and the support for the incursion of the Turkish army into northern Iraq in pursuit of the PKK guerillas is near-unanimous.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Reconciling Statism with Freedom: Turkey's Kurdish Opening
by Halil M. Karaveli, October 2010.



The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited by Halil M. Karaveli.

The Turkey Analyst welcomes article submissions.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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