The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 4 no. 6, 21 March 2011

ANALYSIS

Turkey's Regional Leadership in the Middle East: Principle or Realpolitik?
Joshua Walker
In stark contrast to its support for the protest movements in Egypt and Tunisia, Turkey has abstained from taking a principled, democratic stand in the case of Libya. Turkey has opposed the imposition of sanctions and military measures against the Libyan regime. The failure of the Turkish government to live up to the democratic ideals that purportedly guide its policy toward the Middle East reveals the limits of a foreign policy which seeks to balance ideals and “realism”. Ultimately, the effect of Turkey on regional dynamics will only be as strong as its ideals and principles.

Nuclear and Gas Pipeline Woes Trouble Russian-Turkish Energy Partnership
Gareth H. Jenkins
The nuclear disaster in Japan has further complicated the complex energy relationship between Turkey and Russia. Frictions persist over Turkey’s reluctance to support Russia’s South Stream pipeline project and become ever more dependent on Russian energy sources. Turkey has already become one of the largest Russian gas importers; natural gas accounts for the highest share of the Turkish-Russian trade turnover.  Turkey’s dependence on Russian energy is a cause of concern among officials in Ankara. Diversification of energy partners would leave Turkey less likely to be manipulated by the Kremlin, which occasionally uses its energy exports as a political weapon. Turkey’s energy policy exemplifies its paradoxical relationship with Russia: while Moscow and Ankara engage in an intense partnership, including in the energy sphere, they simultaneously fiercely compete with one another – again, in the same energy sphere.

What the Columnists Say
Commentators in the Turkish press are trying to make sense of the position that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken in the Libyan crisis. Several journalists who enjoy access to government officials argue that Turkey is in fact not at all as pro-Qaddafi as it has come to appear; they relay the information that the Turkish government, although it continues to be unhappy about the military intervention, has nonetheless engaged in talks with the Libyan opposition. The recent arrests of journalists accused of being members of the Ergenekon terrorist organization continues to reverberate in the columns; there is a strong apprehension among liberal-minded commentators and intellectuals that the investigation into the coup schemes has taken a very wrong turn.

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The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited by Halil M. Karaveli.

The Turkey Analyst welcomes article submissions.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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