The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 3 no. 21, 6 December 2010

ANALYSIS

Wikileaks Scandal Deprives Turkey’s Ruling Party Of Its Cherished American Cover
Halil M. Karaveli and M.K. Kaya
U.S. power still matters in Turkey, and the revelation that the AKP does not enjoy universal American support is unwelcome news for the ruling party. The perception that it enjoyed full U.S. support was instrumental in the AKP’s ascendancy. The dissemination of the U.S. diplomatic correspondence from Ankara has called that myth into question, indeed effectively depriving the AKP of its cherished American cover. The reactions of leading AKP representatives to the Wikileaks publication are suggestive of a significant uneasiness. They speak of an anxiety that the U.S. could turn against the AKP, that it has indeed already done so.

The AKP’s Cold War: Towards A Final Reckoning Between Erdogan And Gül?
Gareth H. Jenkins
There are increasing signs that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Abdullah Gül are preparing for a major confrontation if the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) wins the next Turkish general election in June 2011. Erdoğan has repeatedly declared that the AKP will introduce a new constitution if is returned to power. He has yet to announce any details, although AKP officials report that it will replace the current parliamentary system with a presidential or semi-presidential one; after which, Erdoğan will attempt to have himself elected president. The main problem is that Gül has made it clear that he is not prepared to step aside.

What the Columnists Say
Several Turkish commentators have noted that the documents made public by Wikileaks reveal U.S. diplomats in Turkey as having held a less favorable view of the ruling AKP than what had been generally assumed. The conclusion that the U.S. has not been orchestrating the ascendancy of the AKP has imposed itself; however, conversely, there are pro-government commentators who believe that the U.S. does indeed remain a force in Turkish politics, backing sinister forces that allegedly plot to subvert the rule of the AKP.  The change that is being introduced by the new leadership of the opposition CHP has occasioned comments about the rapidly changing nature of Turkish politics. While the prospect of reform taking root among the Kemalists seems dubious to many, others remind of how the Islamists have changed and call attention to the wider, ideological change that is being imposed on Turkish society by the forces of globalization.

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Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst welcomes article submissions.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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