The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 3 no. 15, 15 September 2010

ANALYSIS

Referendum Victory Opens Way to Erdogan's Presidency
Halil M. Karaveli
The popular approval of the constitutional amendments opens the way to the presidency for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Further, it is now likely that Erdoğan will seek to introduce a presidential system. That prospect is sure to stoke the fears that Turkey is moving toward authoritarianism. Yet the introduction of a presidential system could in fact also facilitate a resolution of the Kurdish problem.

Turkey's New "Deep State": A Movement Without A Mover
Gareth H. Jenkins
Turkey’s military-dominated “deep state” has now almost disappeared. But a new book by a widely respected police a chief has shocked Turkey as it claims that the old deep state has been replaced by another system of networks able to influence and control political and judicial processes from inside the apparatus of state. The allegations raise disturbing questions about the role played by the followers of the preacher Fethullah Gülen.

What the Columnists Say
The significance of the constitutional amendments that were put to a popular vote on September 12 has been widely debated by the commentators in the Turkish press.  The ideological polarization in society and between the government and the opposition has been mirrored in the newspaper columns as well.  While both set of commentators agree that the constitutional reform constitute a historic turning point, the assessment of what the changes amount to differ sharply. Those who hail the changes are confident that they usher in full democracy by putting an end to the system of state tutelage over society, while those who decry the constitutional makeover warn that the ground is prepared for the institution of a new system of tutelage. There are also those who point out that the amendments inauspiciously fail to address the crucially important Kurdish issue.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst welcomes article submissions.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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