Turkey Analyst,
vol. 3 no. 13
5 July 2010

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY

The Kurdish issue and the future of the “new CHP” have been the main topics of the Turkish debate. The commentators try to assess the impact of the recent attacks of the PKK, and of the ascent of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the new leader of the main opposition CHP. It is generally assumed that the violence makes progress in accordance with the Kurdish opening of the government unlikely in the near future. It is however worth noting that the commentators in the mainstream media nevertheless argue in favor of continued reforms that address the identity demands of the Kurds, and refrain from jingoistic denouncements of the PKK. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is reported to draw significant crowds as he travels around the country, is however not perceived as offering any comprehensive solutions to Turkey’s Kurdish and Islamic issues.

BERKAN: TWO SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE KURDISH OPENING
İsmet Berkan in Radikal writes that Turkey can choose between one of two paths to solve the Kurdish problem. The first, more improbable one would consist of accepting that the PKK does indeed represent the aspirations of the Kurdish people and accordingly start negotiations with the organization, indeed even with its imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan. As a precondition for negotiations, the PKK would have to cease fire and withdraw its armed forces from the country. The second path is the one that the government has embarked on (with the Kurdish opening that was launched a year ago), although we have to admit that no significant progress has been made so far. It consists of continuing the old fashioned battle against the PKK terrorism alongside the introduction of democratizing reforms designed to address the presumed social, political, cultural and economic causes of the Kurdish problem. Such reforms would for instance include the introduction of Kurdish into the school curriculum. They would eventually deprive the PKK of its societal support and result in it being marginalized. Indeed, the PKK is well aware of this risk and has consequently responded by escalating its armed struggle.

CALIŞLAR:  ONCE AGAIN, WE FAIL TO UNDERSTAND THE KURDS
Oral Calışlar in Radikal observes that the recent declarations of Kurdish NGOs calling for a cessation of all violence, including the attacks of the PKK, have been greeted with enthusiasm among those in the western part of the country who entertain the notion of a solution that would exclude the PKK. Once again we are committing a mistake, failing to properly understand the state of mind of the Kurdish population. Let’s not delude ourselves into thinking that the PKK and the Kurds can be dissociated. It is indeed true that the Kurds do wish the violence to cease. After all, it is the Kurds who have lost tens of thousands of their youth during a conflict that has had devastating consequences in the Southeast. But it is equally true that the Kurds hold the state responsible for what has transpired, and the fact that the PKK continues the armed struggle is attributed to the unwillingness of the state to address the identity demands of the Kurds.

ERGİN: THE GOVERNMENT SEES ISRAELI HAND AND THE ERGENEKON CABAL BEHINDTHE PKK ATTACKS
Sedat Ergin in Hürriyet writes that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan indirectly accuses Israel, and to a lesser degree the U.S., of being behind the recent attacks of the PKK. The Prime Minister has not named those countries, only speaking of the PKK as the middleman of “foreign powers”. However, the general perception among the public is that Erdoğan is referring to Israel and the United States. Secondly, the government has pointed its finger toward the Ergenekon conspiracy. In a recent speech, Erdoğan observed that the links between the PKK and certain cabals have been exposed in the Ergenekon indictments. The Prime Minister is furthermore seeking to lump the opposition parties CHP and MHP together with the PKK; he has implied that those parties are united with the PKK in their common opposition to the Kurdish opening and to the constitutional amendments.

ÖNKİBAR: GENERAL BAŞBUĞ: “I CANNOT SLEEP AT NIGHT”
Selahattin Önkibar in Yeni Cağ has interviewed Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ. He reports that General Başbuğ during the interview repeatedly reiterated his conviction that it is absolutely necessary that the camps and bases of the PKK in Northern Iraq are eradicated in order to solve the problem. Although the General did not specifically say so, I nevertheless came away with the impression that a major land operation in Northern Iraq can be in the making in the very near future. Başbuğ says “I cannot sleep at nights. Late into the night, I wait for the news that may arrive from the Southeast.” And what will the solution look like? According to the Chief of the General staff, priority is given not to negotiations with the terrorists, but to continued, determined struggle. General Başbuğ and his second in command let me know that their intelligence indicates that the PKK attacks will continue, but they stated that Turkey is strong enough to surmount the challenge.

SAZAK: THE TIMID DEMOCRAT
Derya Sazak in Milliyet finds Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main opposition party CHP, too timid. He notes that Kılıçdaroğlu promises to solve the headscarf problem in the universities (the wearing of the Islamic headscarf is prohibited in the universities) as well as the Kurdish issue. But what does he propose in the way of solutions? Regarding the headscarf, Kılıçdaroğlu first seemed to have held out the promise that girls that wear it would indeed be able to attend university; yet he subsequently clarified that he had not said that girls wearing the headscarf would be allowed entrance, stating that the matter has already been settled by the Turkish and international judiciary instances. So what he is saying is in fact that he cannot solve the problem. And when it comes to the Kurdish matter, he refers to proposals that were made by the CHP two decades ago, and he refuses to speak of the matter as the Kurdish issue, instead using the label terrorism to denote the problem. He promises to bring work and food to the Kurdish areas. Kılıçdaroğlu’s suggestions are inadequate and dated. Today, the issue is discussed in terms of democratic autonomy for the Kurds and education in Kurdish is being considered by the government. It is difficult, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s leftist and democratic credentials notwithstanding, to understand how he would be able to make any contribution to the solution of the Kurdish and Islamic problems. He needs to be much more outspoken.

© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, 2010. This article may be reprinted provided that the following sentence be included: "This article was first published in the Turkey Analyst (www.turkeyanalyst.org), a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center".

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published bi-weekly, and includes topical analysis, as well asa summary of the Turkish media debate. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli.

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The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understanding of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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