The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 3 no. 13, 5 July 2010

ANALYSIS

Preparing a 'Decisive Blow' to the PKK, Ankara May Only Be Postponing A Solution to the Kurdish Problem
Halil M. Karaveli
After the failure of the Kurdish opening and the offensive of the PKK, Turkey gropes for a way out of its Kurdish impasse. Recent statements by the Turkish Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ suggest that a major military incursion into northern Iraq to stamp out the PKK is being considered. Yet it is unlikely that the Turkish state leadership truly believes that there is a military solution to the challenge posed by the demands of the Kurdish population. The moment when that challenge will have to be properly addressed is only being postponed. 

The Devil in the Detail: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation Enters Its Fourth Year
Gareth H. Jenkins
July 10, 2010 marks the second anniversary of the publication of the first indictment in what has become known as the Ergenekon case.  A total of over 600 suspects have been detained, of whom more than 400 have been formally charged in indictments running to thousands of pages and backed by more than a million pages of supporting evidence. Yet the prosecutors have yet to extract a single confession, much less produce any convincing proof that the clandestine network they described even exists. Indeed, far from strengthening the prosecutors’ case, the increasing volume of “evidence” has steadily undermined it. Most disturbingly, not only is much of the material self-contradictory or manifestly absurd but – particularly in what has become known as the Sledgehammer investigation – some appears to have been manufactured.

What the Columnists Say
The Kurdish issue and the future of the “new CHP” have been the main topics of the Turkish debate. The commentators try to assess the impact of the recent attacks of the PKK, and of the ascent of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the new leader of the main opposition CHP. It is generally assumed that the violence makes progress in accordance with the Kurdish opening of the government unlikely in the near future. It is however worth noting that the commentators in the mainstream media nevertheless argue in favor of continued reforms that address the identity demands of the Kurds, and refrain from jingoistic denouncements of the PKK. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is reported to draw significant crowds as he travels around the country, is however not perceived as offering any comprehensive solutions to Turkey’s Kurdish and Islamic issues.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst wlecomes article submissions.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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