Turkey Analyst,
vol. 3 no. 12
21 June 2010

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY

In the wake of the confrontation with Israel and of the Turkish no vote in the UN Security Council to new sanctions against Iran, Turkish commentators have been busy trying to make sense of the direction of Turkey’s foreign policy. A recurrent theme in many comments is that Turkey needs to appreciate that it is not a risk-free exercise to challenge American and Israeli interests, and several commentators have pointedly warned that the Kurdish problem makes Turkey vulnerable. Meanwhile, the Turkish pundits continue to assess the new leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. It is in particular worth noting that his views on secularism and on the role of the military have been well received by conservatives, while his nationalism and opposition to the Kurdish opening is putting off liberals.

AKYOL:  THE "NO" VOTE WAS AN ACCIDENT THAT SERVES THE INTERESTS OF THE AMERICAN NEOCONS AND OF ISRAEL
Taha Akyol in Milliyet generally approves the foreign policy of the AKP government. Yet I nevertheless think of Turkey’s no vote in the Security Council as an accident.  Turkey should of course expand its relations with the Middle East; it should of course support Palestine, and have good relations with Iran. It can obviously not content itself with an exclusively Western-oriented foreign policy discourse reminiscent of the Cold War. But I am still worried. In its relations with the West, the government employs a rational discourse that speaks to the mind; however, communicating with the East, the language tends to be overtaken by emotions, by enthusiasm and by anger and indeed sometimes by tears. I don’t doubt the sincerity of those emotions; indeed I entertain them myself. Yet I am nevertheless concerned that this kind of language risks paving the way for smaller and bigger accidents along what is the right path. The no vote in the Security Council has served the interests of those – the Neo-cons in the United States and the Israeli propaganda – who seek to portray Turkey as aligned with Iran and Hamas. The fact that the global power equation is changing does not mean that the West is becoming inconsequential. Turkey has a global mission to shoulder, as a bridge between the West and the East: infusing dynamism into an ageing Europe and relaying peaceful and democratic values to the East.

TAŞPINAR:  A FOREIGN POLICY DRIVEN BY NATIONALISM, NOT ISLAMISM
Ömer Taşpınar in Today’s Zaman writes that what we see emerging in Turkey is not an Islamist foreign policy but a much more nationalist, defiant, independent, self-confident and self-centered strategic orientation. If you scratch the surface of what seems to be a secular versus Islamist divide in Turkish attitudes toward the West, you will quickly see that both the so-called Islamist and secular camps embrace the same narrative vis-à-vis Europe and America: nationalist frustration. The AK Party, too, has decided to jump on the bandwagon of nationalist frustration with the West. After all, this is the most powerful societal undercurrent in Turkey, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan needs to win elections. It is high time for American analysts to stop overplaying the Islamic-secular divide in Turkish foreign policy and pay more attention to what unites both camps: Turkish nationalism. The real question is whether Ankara will pay a price for challenging the United States. This is why it is now time for Turkey to solve its Armenian and Kurdish problems without coming to Washington. Only then will Turkey deserve real “grandeur and self-confidence” in its relations with the West.

ÇALIŞLAR: TURKEY MUST FIRST MAKE PEACE WITH THE KURDS
Oral Çalışlar in Radikal is struck by the discrepancy between the audacity of Prime Minister Erdoğan in foreign policy and by his lack of courage to challenge the traditional tenets of Turkey’s Kurdish policies. On the home front, Erdoğan has become the prisoner of the conservatism that has put a solution of the problem out of reach. He doesn’t want to or doesn’t have the courage to deviate from the usual conservatism. While foreign policy is defined by a willingness to take risks and by an ability to think big, fear and complacency informs the attitudes to the Kurdish question. I have still not given up all hope on the Kurdish opening of the government, but the picture one year after the opening was launched is not at all encouraging. Yet a Turkey that has not made with the Kurds will not be able to become the international heavy weight that it aspires to become.

ÇONGAR: WATCH OUT FOR NEOCON-ERGENEKON ALLIANCE
Yasemin Çongar in Taraf writes that neo-cons in Washington, whom she accuses of having long since served as the most influential foreign agents of the Turkish alleged Ergenekon conspiracy, are gathering new steam in the wake of the Gaza flotilla incident and Turkey’s no vote in the Security Council. The same circles who have peddled assertions like “Turkey is set to become a new Malaysia” or “Turkey is threatened by civilian fascism” are now happy to make the case that Turkey is turning its back on the West. It is obvious that they are going to intensify their campaign, suggesting that Turkey has joined forces with Iran and Hamas and going as far as calling for Turkey’s expulsion from the NATO. Prime Minister Erdoğan is apparently aware of this mounting campaign, and has reacted by stating that those who claim that Turkey is turning its back on the West are ill-intentioned. But Erdoğan needs to act decisively in order to counteract the campaign. He should make sure to entertain a sincere, open and close dialogue with the Obama administration. And above all, he should see to it that democratization and the relationship with the EU are not neglected. If you stop along this road, you might fall.

GÜZEL:  I APPLAUD KILICDAROGLU
Hasan Celal Güzel in Radikal lavishes praise on the CHP’s new leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu is the first leader of the CHP to unequivocally condemn all military coups. I greatly appreciate his recent statement that he would be the first person to climb up on the tank if the military ever were to try to seize power again. I applaud Kılıçdaroğlu; if he stays true to the statements in which he has denounced the interventions of the military, he will have made a significant, indeed historically decisive contribution to Turkish democracy. I also note that Kılıçdaroğlu has abandoned the secularist rhetoric that had put the CHP at odds with the people, that he in this vein refrains from making any statements that would hurt popular sentiments and finally that he doesn’t heed the advice of those pro-Kurdish nationalist circles in the media who urge him to appease Kurdish demands.  We can happily conclude that he will not make any concessions that imperil Turkey’s national and territorial integrity.

AYDINTAŞBAS:  I FANTASIZE THAT KILICDAROGLU IS A CLOSET LIBERAL
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş in Milliyet wonders if Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu represents change or more of the same, if he is a nationalist or a closet liberal. Of course, nobody expects Kılıçdaroğlu to be able to reinvent the CHP as a liberal party overnight. Yet I nevertheless expect Kılıçdaroğlu to represent a more liberal stance in such matters as minority rights, freedoms, the Kurdish question and the European Union. Indeed, I fantasize that he in fact holds liberal views which he is unable to disclose because of the present political conjuncture.

© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, 2010. This article may be reprinted provided that the following sentence be included: "This article was first published in the Turkey Analyst (www.turkeyanalyst.org), a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center".

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published bi-weekly, and includes topical analysis, as well asa summary of the Turkish media debate. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli.

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The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understanding of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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