Turkey Analyst,
vol. 3 no. 2
1 February 2010

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY

The question whether or not the military has been devising schemes with the intention of toppling the government of the Justice and development party (AKP) has been the major, really the only topic of the Turkish political debate during the last fortnight. The intense discussion was prompted, once again, by the daily Taraf’s publication of what is allegedly a sensational scheme concocted in 2002-2003 by senior officers to destabilize the country. Although the details of the supposed coup plot have not been universally accepted as truths, it is nevertheless noteworthy that there is a clear tendency among commentators to take the gist of the allegations – that the military has indeed been seeking to subvert the government – for more or less granted.

BİRAND:  THE MILITARY SHOULD NO LONGER ISSUE ORDERS TO CIVILIANS
Mehmet Ali Birand in Hürriyet notes that the AKP government and the military have been locked in a power struggle ever since the AKP came to power in 2002. Surely, we cannot continue along this road; people are fed up, and in the process our democracy as well as the standing of the military will suffer. Now, it’s time for us to once for all make up our minds and find the answers to a set of crucial questions: Exactly what falls within the responsibility of the military? Is the military to continue to supervise elected governments, or will it on the contrary have to defer to the government?  We need to re-establish the duties of the military and clarify what it means to “protect the constitutional regime against internal threats”, which the military believes gives it the right to intervene in politics. Is the military supposed to supervise parties like the AKP, and if need be punish them, or should that be left to the voters?  We cannot content ourselves with half-measures; the only way to clarify matters is to replace the constitution bequeathed to us by the military regime of the 1980’s. The military has to realize that it can no longer issue orders to civilians.

AYDINTAŞBAS: THE GOVERNMENT IS CONVINCED THAT THE MILITARY IS TRYING TO SUBVERT IT
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş in Milliyet writes about the political atmosphere in Ankara after the revelation of the alleged “Sledgehammer” coup plot. The ministers of the government with whom I have spoken to a man believe that the plot was for real. Indeed, they are absolutely certain that the government has been besieged by the military ever since it came to power; they full believe that they have been the targets of a consistent effort of destabilization. “We are in government, but we are unable to exert real power”, they exclaim. The only way to ascertain that the government exerts real power, they believe, is to change the constitution, and my impression is that the AKP is indeed contemplating an overhaul of the constitution – which in the event would have to be put to referendum – notably making it more difficult to close political parties and restricting the jurisdiction of the military courts. However, should the AKP government go ahead with these plans, the political tension is sure to increase considerably. The odd thing is that while the government believes that it is being undermined by the military, the latter maintains that it is subjected to “asymmetrical warfare”.

AKYOL:  THE PROBLEM IS THE MILITARY MENTALITY
Taha Akyol in Milliyet notes that the General staff has acknowledged the existence of the “Sledgehammer”, but that it maintains that it is not a blueprint for a coup, but a “scenario” to be used in a war game. But what kind of a “scenario” is this? It contains plans to topple the government, the full list of the new government that was to be appointed after the coup and its program. And, it lays out plans to carry out acts of terrorism. The “scenario” stipulates that war has broken out with Greece, upon which “reactionary elements” and Kurds start uprisings. But what on earth is the rationale for fomenting internal unrest, creating economic disorder and toppling the government in a situation when the country is at war? Please, could you explain this, General Başbuğ? What this “war game” ultimately illustrates – just like every other coup plot that has been revealed lately, as well as the coups that have taken place – is the problem with the military mentality. The military needs to rid itself of the ideology that prescribes that democracy can be dispensed with in the name of “protecting the fatherland”.

ÇAKIR:  THE MILITARY DESERVES CREDIT FOR HAVING NEUTRALIZED ITS COUP PLOTTERS
Ruşen Çakır in Vatan writes that the alleged coup plot is truly harrowing. Yet, we don’t know the reasons why the plans were not put into motion. It is improbable that the conspirators by themselves gave up on realizing their aims; it should therefore be assumed that they were stopped by others within the armed forces. Indeed, as we have been busy the last couple of years scrutinizing the Turkish armed forces – and notably the propensity of this body to produce would-be coup makers – we have for some reason neglected to pay attention to the fact how effective this body is at neutralizing conspirators within, without even the government knowing about it. These experiences clearly suggest that the armed forces have learnt from past coups. The Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ has withstood pressures from within the military as well as from certain civilian quarters, to issue a warning – similar to the infamous e-memorandum of April 2007 – that the Ergenekon investigation should not be pursued; that fact also serves to remind of the military’s “learning process” in progress.

KORU: THE DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE STATE ESTABLISHMENT NEED TO REACH AN UNDERSTANDING
Fehmi Koru in Yeni Şafak asks whether it will be possible to redefine the traditional military-civilian relationship in Turkey. Everything indicates that it least a part of the military has done nothing else during the last seven years but monitored the political life and devised different measures to subvert the government. Yet, it is no coincidence that all this planning has failed to produce a coup; internal and external dynamics have converged to a point where it is utterly inconceivable that Turkey would abandon democracy. The only thing that a coup would succeed in ensuring is that Turkey would become an isolated country that has turned its back to the world, if that is something to strive for. The different parts of the state establishment need to agree on working together, within the framework of democracy, to the benefit of the country. The suspicions within the military that the civilian power intends to take the country in the wrong direction should be dispelled while the civilian power needs to be assured that the military is not scheming against it. Prime Minister Erdoğan and General İlker Başbuğ are well placed to create the conditions for such an understanding.

© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, 2010. This article may be reprinted provided that the following sentence be included: "This article was first published in the Turkey Analyst (www.turkeyanalyst.org), a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center".

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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