Turkey Analyst,
vol. 2 no. 23
21 December 2009

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY

The decision of the constitutional court to close down the Kurdish Democratic society party (DTP) and the ambush in which seven Turkish soldiers were killed have dominated the Turkish political scene. Notably, several liberal commentators have leveled harsh criticism at the PKK, which they accuse of colluding with the forces of Turkish nationalism in ambushing the “democratic opening” of the government. In general, the closure decision has been interpreted as proof that the “democratic opening” does not enjoy the support of the state establishment. Several commentators have noted that recent developments have above all served to make it plain that the jailed leader of the PKK, Abdullah Öcalan remains the most important Kurdish political player.

KORU: DOES THE CLOSURE OF THE DTP MEAN THAT THE”DEMOCRATIC OPENING” IS OVER?
Fehmi Koru in Yeni Safak writes that the decision of the constitutional court to close the Kurdish Democratic society party (DTP) hardly came as a surprise for anyone. On the contrary, the representatives of the DTP had even given the impression lately that they were in fact looking forward to their party being closed down. The representatives of the DTP have reason to ponder why so few regrets have been expressed at the closure of their party. However, the fact that the decision was anticipated obviously does not mean that it was right to dissolve the DTP. The constitutional court could have chosen a less “legalistic” approach, and taken into consideration the new atmosphere that the “democratic opening” of the state has created in the country. The question that is on everyone’s mind now is of course if the closure signifies that the “democratic opening” of the state has been sunk by the constitutional court. Is the “opening” about to be ended? We will have to wait some time before we know the definite answers to those questions.

SAZAK: WE NOW HAVE THE FINAL PROOF THAT “THE DEMOCRATIC OPENING” WAS NEVER A STATE PROJECT
Derya Sazak in Milliyet describes the closure decision of the constitutional court as a severe blow against the “democratic opening” of the government. It is now clear that the project of bringing down the PKK militants from the mountains and disarming them will have to be postponed until at least after the next general elections. The AKP has been left alone in the pursuit of a radical solution to the Kurdish problem. The AKP has been at pains from the start to designate the “democratic opening” as a state project; yet, the institutions of the state had on an early stage made it plain that they were in fact not on board. Let us recall how interior minister Atalay late August was forced to backpedal and assure that the “democratic opening” did not entail any constitutional change, and that education in Kurdish was not in the cards after the General staff had clarified where its red lines ran. The closure decision of the constitutional court is the final proof that the “opening” indeed was not any state project. The state did what it knows best to do, and closed down the DTP, thus making the proposition that the “democratic opening” ever was a state project utterly untenable.

GÜRSEL: A KURDISH-TURKISH CLASH IN THE MAKING?
Kadri Gürsel in Milliyet makes the observation that the conditions of an inter-communal conflict erupting between Turks and Kurds had not been as threatening as they are now since 1978, when the PKK was founded. Yet, does that also mean that the factors that speak against such a scenario are correspondingly weak? Not necessarily. Despite all its efforts, the PKK has so far not succeeded in becoming organizationally implanted in the western parts of the country. That is in large part due to the efforts of the police, but it also reflects the structural deficiencies of the Kurdish movement. I don’t think that PKK stands any better chance in succeeding today. Instead I recommend those who wonder “will there be any outbreak of inter-communal fighting?” to pay closer attention to the Turkish side. There will be serious trouble only if and when the provocations of the PKK are met with systematic and organized responses from that quarter. Several factors will be important in this regard: It will matter greatly that the Nationalist action party (MHP) manages to keep its youth organization under control; and if the police acts vigilantly, yet with respect for human rights. Then we will have less reason to fear inter-communal fighting, even if the actions of PKK do contribute to drive Turks and Kurds apart.

ÇANDAR: THE DEMOCRATIC OPENING IS UNDER THE CROSSFIRE OF PKK AND THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT
Cengiz Çandar in Radikal writes that the attack in Reşadiye, where seven Turkish soldiers were killed and that the PKK has claimed responsibility for is a “provocation” intended to hurt the “democratic opening”. Likewise, the decision of the constitutional court to close the DTP is an act of “sabotage” against the opening.  Are we really expected to believe that the timing of the ambush that just happened to occur as Prime Minister Erdoğan was about to meet President Barack Obama at the White house was a mere coincidence? The fact that the PKK is resorting to violence once again, and that it does so with the unreasonable pretext of protesting against the change of the prison conditions of Abdullah Öcalan (who has recently been moved to a new cell-house that is insignificantly smaller than his previous one) means that the PKK leaves no space for democratic Kurdish forces. The PKK presents the government with the choice “negotiate with me, or else, be prepared for civil war”. And the closure decision of the constitutional court signals that “certain institutions” of the state that escape the control of the government or of Prime Minister Erdoğan have on their own initiative decided to clear out the democratic field.

ERGIN: TURKEY IS AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE
Sedat Ergin in Hürriyet writes that Turkey is at a most critical juncture, with a growing risk of inter-communal fighting between Turks and Kurds. As long as the violence was restricted to the remote, south-eastern corner of the country and only involved soldiers and PKK militants, we didn’t have to fear such a scenario. Today however, as the regular fighting has decreased in intensity, we are experiencing the growth of Turkish-Kurdish animosity. The indications are multiplying that the conflict is being transferred to the cities in the west that have received large numbers of Kurdish immigrants. In such an atmosphere, Turkey has become vulnerable for every kind of provocation. The fact that the government and opposition are locked in confrontation makes matters worse. Prime Minister Erdoğan faces the most serious challenge so far to his leadership. It is incumbent upon him to put aside the politics of stridency and take the initiative for the search for a societal compromise.

© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, 2009. This article may be reprinted provided that the following sentence be included: "This article was first published in the Turkey Analyst (www.turkeyanalyst.org), a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center".

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

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The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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