Turkey Analyst,
vol. 2 no. 19
26 October 2009

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY

The decision of the Turkish government not to allow the participation of the Israeli airforce in a scheduled maneuver did not cause any major consternation among Turkish commentators. The general consensus among the opinion makers is that the “break” with Israel represents a logical step, dictated by realpolitik, although an attitude of hostility toward Israel is not generally approved of. Of far greater concern is the evolution of the Kurdish issue. The return of a group of PKK militants was initially greeted as a turning point by liberal and pro-government commentators , but the jubilant welcome accorded to the militants in the Southeast has caused apprehension that the opening could be jeopardized.

ALTAN: THE GENERAL STAFF HAS BEEN CAUGHT RED-HANDED
When our daily a couple of months ago disclosed that a unit of the General staff had prepared a plan to topple the government, the Chief of the General staff called the blueprint “a piece of paper” and denied the existence of any such plan at a press conference, reminds Ahmet Altan in Taraf.  Either he was lying or he was unaware of what had been going on behind his back at his own headquarters. At the time (in June), a significant part of the Turkish media chose to believe the High command. Like the General staff, those commentators who viciously attacked us built their argumentation on the fact that it was not an original copy that had been presented, but a “photocopy”. The Chief of the General staff assured that the military authorities would take all appropriate measures if it the blueprint was revealed to be authentic. Well, we now know that the blueprint is indeed authentic. The original document, with the “wet” signature of Colonel Dursun Çiçek has been handed over to the law enforcement authorities. Now, everybody knows for sure that the plan to topple the government was prepared and signed by Colonel Ciçek. The only thing we don’t know is if the Colonel prepared the blueprint on the instigation of the Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ, or on behalf of some other general. Whatever the case, a most serious crime has been committed. The General staff has been caught red-handed.

ÇANDAR: THE KURDISH OPENING WILL NOT BE ABANDONED
Cengiz Çandar in Hürriyet notes that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has declared that the scheduled return of PKK militants from Europe has been postponed as a result of the jubilant welcoming accorded to the PKK militants in the Southeast. That means that the “opening” has now entered a period of “stagnation”, but it does not suggest that it is going to be abandoned. As the Prime Minister emphasized, further steps are now going to be considered. Apparently, the government was caught off-guard when the return of the PKK militants was transformed into a manifestation. It was not prepared for the political move made by the Kurdish side. Now, the most urgent task of the AKP government is to convince the Turkish side that the opening will be to the benefit of the country as a whole. And that requires a better understanding of the other side. Portraying the PKK militants as terrorists will not help. However we choose to denominate PKK, the fact remains that it is the latest of the Kurdish rebellions that have marked the republic since its founding. If the “rebels” are treated differently than they were in 1925 or in 1937, then Turkey stands a chance of “taking off”.

MAHÇUPYAN: IT IS THE STATE THAT IS REPENTANT
Etyen Mahçupyan in Taraf writes that it has been conventionally assumed that a solution of the Kurdish issue depended on the PKK relinquishing its arms, on the PKK militants descending from the mountains. Yet, the oppression to which the Kurds had been subjected since the founding of the republic, and which had acquired inhuman dimensions after the military coup of the 1980 never left the Kurds aspiring for freedom any other alternative than to take up arms. In that respect, it is entirely misleading to depict those who are now descending from the mountains as being “repentant”. The only thing they regretted was living under oppression. In fact, it is really the other way around: It is the state itself that is repentant. The state is forced to abrogate the republican law (in order to accommodate the return of the militants of the PKK), which never allowed for democracy in the first place. One may speculate over why the state is reversing its policies: Globalization, the spread of a culture of human rights, energy geopolitics could all be enumerated as explanations. Those who prefer to delve more deeply into the issue would point to the change of mentality that has taken place among the pious conservatives during the last two decades.  But whatever the explanation, it is an undeniable fact that the state has outgrown its founding ideology. It realizes that there is no return to the past, that it is irrational to assume that continued suppression of political demands, of diversity, will ensure the survival of the regime. Although to pride to admit it, the state is indeed repentant.

CEMAL: THE DTP HAS TO RESTRAIN ITS SYMPATHZISERS
After having spoken to Ahmet Türk, the leader of the pro-Kurdish Democratic society party (DTP), Hasan Cemal in Milliyet relates that Türk has grown increasingly alarmed over the reactions to the return of the PKK militants, who were greeted by jubilant masses in the Southeast. Türk assured me that the scenes in the Southeast only testified to the desire for peace. “Yet, I am also aware that the jubilant welcoming creates tensions in the country, and we are trying our best to control the situation”, Türk told me.  Indeed, the process of democratic opening is fragile, and could just as easily be derailed. Those who want it to succeed must take into account that there is not only a Kurdish public opinion, but a Turkish public opinion as well.  Its sensibilities will have to be taken into consideration as well. The DTP must pull the breaks and restrain its sympathizers.

GÜRSEL: WHY HAS ISRAEL BECOME THE AKP’S WHIPPING BOY?
Kadri Gürsel in Milliyet explains why Israel has become the AKP’s “whipping boy”: During the 1990s, when Syria gave shelter to the leader of the PKK, security needs dictated that Turkey developed military ties with Israel.  The capture of Abdullah Öcalan in 1999 changed the context. And while there are no longer any pressing security reasons for Turkey to maintain a close relation with Israel, the economy on the contrary dictates that Turkey nurtures its relations with the Muslim Middle East. Being perceived as aligned with Israel would only harm Turkey’s business interests in the region. Furthermore, as Turkey normalizes its relations with Armenia, there is an expectation that there will not be any “Armenian genocide resolution” in the U.S. congress, which in turn makes Turkey less dependent on the goodwill of the Jewish lobby (that has so far defended Turkish interests). And the fact that the Obama administration is the decidedly least pro-Israeli U.S. administration in years further emboldens the AKP. Finally, the AKP is sensitive to the Iranian point of view. Israel still needs Turkey, but Turkey no longer has the same interest in staying close to Israel. If Turkey had been governed by a centrist party, the relation with Israel would still have been reconsidered, but the current, unnecessary ideological overtones would have been absent.

KORU: ISRAEL LASHES OUT AT TURKEY IN THE VAIN HOPE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL TIDE AGAINST IT CAN BE REVERSED
Fehmi Koru in Yeni Şafak writes that Israel is a country that has lost its ways in a changed world. What scares Israel most is the hope of change that the U.S. president Barack Obama represents. We all know that the “neo-insane” who ruled the U.S. during the eight Bush years put Israel’s interests above everything else, including the interests of the country whose citizens they are. They tried to remake the world in a way that would have suited Israel, and they failed dismally. Now, the realization that the tide has turned against them terrifies the decision makers of Israel. The unprecedented report of the UN Human rights commission, condemning Israel’s human rights abuses during the Gaza war in hitherto unheard language is a first sign. And with the expectation that the U.S. administration will act on the Palestinian issue, Israeli decision makers anticipate that something more terrible than their worst nightmare is about to come true. In the vain hope that it will help it reverse the tide to its advantage, Israel is letting its aggressions out on Turkey. Israel will not succeed.

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The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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