The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 19, 26 October 2009

ANALYSIS

Is the Turkish-Israeli Alliance Over?
Barry Rubin
The Turkey-Israel alliance is over. After more than two decades of close cooperation, the Turkish government is no longer interested in maintaining close cooperation with Israel. Nor is it—for all practical purposes—willing to do anything much to maintain its good relations with Israel. The absence of any substantial, public criticism in Turkey of the Turkish government’s break with Israel does suggest the Turkish-Israeli relationship lacked deeper roots in Turkish society, and hence the potential to become a permanent one.

Turkey's "Kurdish Opening" Faces New Challenges
Gareth Jenkins
The October 24 announcement by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that he was postponing the planned arrival in Turkey from Europe on October 28 of 15 members and sympathizers of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) was a tacit admission that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had seriously miscalculated a critical phase in the “Kurdish Opening”, which is designed to address the grievances of Turkey’s Kurdish minority and persuade the PKK to lay down its arms.

What the Columnists Say
The decision of the Turkish government not to allow the participation of the Israeli airforce in a scheduled maneuver did not cause any major consternation among Turkish commentators. The general consensus among the opinion makers is that the “break” with Israel represents a logical step, dictated by realpolitik, although an attitude of hostility toward Israel is not generally approved of. Of far greater concern is the evolution of the Kurdish issue. The return of a group of PKK militants was initially greeted as a turning point by liberal and pro-government commentators , but the jubilant welcome accorded to the militants in the Southeast has caused apprehension that the opening could be jeopardized. 

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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