The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 15, 14 September 2009

ANALYSIS

Fusing Statism and Religious Conservatism: Is the AKP Introducing a More Formidable Version of Semi-Authoritarianism?
Halil M. Karaveli
The determination of the Turkish government to muzzle critical media is the clearest sign to date that Turkey is drifting towards semi-authoritarianism.  Contrary to the expectations of its liberal supporters, the AKP is not about to dismantle statism. Fusing statism and religious conservatism, the AKP could be introducing a semi-authoritarian model more comprehensive and potentially more enduring than the defunct Kemalist model.

Normalizing Turkish-Armenian Ties: Will Davutoglu's Gamble Pay Off?
M. K. Kaya and Svante E. Cornell
In its laudable attempts to reduce tensions with its neighbors and to gain a greater influence in the South Caucasus, the AKP government has made itself dependent on forces that it cannot control. Unless Armenia and Azerbaijan strike a deal rapidly, Turkey will inevitably be forced to choose between reneging on its commitment to normalize relations with Armenia or risk a breakdown in its relations with Azerbaijan. In either situation, Moscow will be the geopolitical winner. Western, in particular American, activity to support an agreement on principle between Armenia and Azerbaijan is urgently called for.

What the Columnists Say
In the aftermath of the government’s “Kurdish opening”, Turkey continues to grapple with the challenge the nation-state faces. As the divisions over ethnicity and lifestyles are increasingly recognized, the question of how national cohesion is going to be ensured – as well as how democracy is to be secured – preoccupies several of the participants in the public debate. The record USD2.5 billion fine imposed by the tax authorities on the Doğan Media Group caused alarm not least among commentators in media outlets owned by the DMG. As opponents of the ruling AKP worry about the danger of a drift toward authoritarianism, pro-government commentators are on the contrary encouraged by the recent proposal of the government to restructure the judicial system.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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