The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 15, 31 August 2009

ANALYSIS

Turkey and the EU: How to Save the Day before December
Gareth Jenkins
It is nearly five years since Turkey’s ruling party passed a substantive package of reforms to comply with EU norms. The few reforms demanded by the EU which have been passed in recent years appear to be more the product of a convergence with the AKP’s perceptions of its own interests than a response to the requirements of the accession process. As Turkish officials try to come up with a formula to avoid a “train crash” in December 2009, their main concern is no longer to move the accession process forward; it is simply to keep it alive.

Turkish Government Evades Confronting Structural Economic Problems
M. K. Kaya
Turkey has been severely affected by the global economic crisis. The country is in deep recession. However, it is still uncertain whether an agreement with the International Monetary Fund will be reached. The agreement with the IMF was expected to be signed after the local elections in March 2009, but the Turkish government continues to postpone the issue. The non-existence of an agreement with the IMF is above all a testimony to the lack of any economic administration to speak of. To implement the measures that are necessary if Turkey is to avoid another economic collapse means that the AKP must be prepared to sacrifice its hold on power.

What the Columnists Say
The controversy that the AKP government’s “Kurdish opening” has provoked continues to shape the Turkish debate. The endorsement of the “opening” by the National Security Council provoked furious reactions from the nationalist opposition MHP and CHP parties. The MHP in particular accused the General Staff of betraying the principles of the Turkish nation-state, while the CHP issued a warning that the “Kurdish opening” risked turning Turkey into another Yugoslavia or Iraq. The reaction of the opposition prompted General Staff Chief General İlker Başbuğ to intervene. Başbuğ stated that the Turkish armed forces remain the safeguard of the unitary state. In a subsequent speech, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan concurred with the statement of General Başbuğ, underlining that the purpose of the opening is absolutely not to call the founding articles of Turkey – enshrined as they are in the constitution – into question. While commentators who had taken a critical view of the AKP’s Kurdish opening welcome Erdoğan’s clarifications, there is widespread worry that an opportunity is being lost..

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Between Fact and Fantasy: Turkey's Ergenekon Investigation, by Gareth H. Jenkins, August 2009.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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