Turkey Analyst,
vol. 2 no. 13
3 July 2009

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY


The political tension in Ankara shows no signs of abating. The columnists draw the conclusion that the General staff has been put on the defensive, and that the attempts of General İlker Başbuğ to redress the balance in the favor of the military fail to achieve their aim. The disclosure of a blueprint for the overthrow of the AKP government that was allegedly prepared within the military has prompted the General staff to issue stark declarations. The Chief of the General staff, General İlker Başbuğ, held a high profile press conference together with the rest of the top brass, and responded to the accusations by claiming that the military is the target of “asymmetric psychological warfare”. Only hours later, the parliament passed a law which accords civilian courts jurisdiction over military personnel. The General staff immediately declared its opposition to the law. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that the police are the “guarantor” of the internal security, a statement that was generally interpreted by the columnists as another sign of the changing nature of the civilian-military relations.

GÜRSEL: AN ASYMMETRICAL CIVIL WAR
Kadri Gürsel in Milliyet notes that the Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ describes the publication of the alleged blueprint for a coup as a part of an ongoing, “psychological, asymmetrical war against the armed forces”, and that Başbuğ in unequivocal terms stated that the Turkish armed forces will not idly stand by as it is subjected to attacks by the other side. Let me make clear what Başbuğ is referring to when he is speaking about “the other side”: it is not the other side of the Bosphorus, but the Fethullah Gülen movement, which is becoming entrenched in the state establishment that Başbuğ has in mind. But who is the guerilla and who is the regular army in the asymmetrical civil war between the armed forces and the Fethullah Gülen movement?  During the later years of AKP’s tenure in government, the power of the military to conduct psychological and political operations has eroded. Meanwhile, the soft power of the “brotherhood” (that is, the Fethullah Gülen movement) has increased, creating an asymmetrical imbalance in favor of the Gülen movement. The question is how the military is going to follow up the statements of Başbuğ about not accepting what is going on.

AKYOL:  THE LAW ABOUT THE TRIAL OF MILITARY PERSONNEL WAS PASSED IN AN INAPPROPIRIATE WAY
Taha Akyol in Milliyet comments on the law that was passed by the parliament, giving civilian courts jurisdiction over military personnel. Deniz Baykal, the leader of the opposition CHP, calls the law a “midnight coup”, since it was approved at a nocturnal session of the parliament. Other representatives of the opposition parties CHP and MHP claim that they were indeed not properly informed about the full content of the law.  I am in agreement with the substance of the law: It is proper that military personnel, who have committed crimes such as preparing a coup, should stand trial in civilian courts. However, I found the way the law was passed objectionable. It should not have been presented as a fait accompli, but instead preceded by due deliberation and debate in the responsible commission of the parliament. Unfortunately, we have once again witnessed an expression of our combative political culture that leaves little, if any room for consensus.

ŞAHIN: THE MILITARY FAILS TO SCORE ANY POINTS
Haluk Şahin in Radikal concludes that the bloc that includes the AKP continues to be in a highly advantageous position in the ongoing power struggle. Whether because it is inept at reading the game, or because the battle is asymmetrical, the other side never succeeds in reversing the losing trend. The statement of the Chief of the General staff General İlker Başbuğ, calling the alleged blueprint for a coup “a piece of paper” was not sufficient at all to offer his side any advantage; in order to really score a point, Başbuğ needed to have been able to reveal the identity of those who were behind the document and detail what these people are intending to achieve. Observing that no such initiatives were forthcoming from the General staff, the AKP took the opportunity to score another goal by passing its nocturnal law (that gives civilian courts jurisdiction over military personnel). As I have pointed out on several occasions, Turkey has entered wholly uncharted waters since the 2007 election victory of the AKP. We should thus not be surprised, although the events that we are witnessing are truly astonishing. Yet, those who want a democratic and secular Turkey should stop being astonished, and instead try to understand what is going on. Whether they like it or not, they have to reconcile themselves to the reality that a new Turkey is emerging. Those who want to turn Turkey into a predominantly religious, Middle Eastern kind of country are employing every symmetrical and asymmetrical tool available to achieve that goal. If those who are in opposition to that development content themselves with defending a past gone by, they will continue to face but defeats.

ÜLSEVER: THE AKP IS AT A CROSS-ROAD
Cüneyt Ülsever in Hürriyet objects to the statement of Prime Minister Erdoğan calling the police the guarantor of the regime, a proposition that has been lauded by several liberal commentators. Let me just remind that it is only in authoritarian, fascist regimes that the police is the guarantor of the regime. There is evidently a fight raging between the military and the police. Those who are critical of the traditional role of the military find it convenient to support the police. But, please, don’t try to sell this as being a struggle for democracy. Ülsever holds that the AKP is at a cross-road: The crucial question is whether the AKP will continue to hold on to its alliance with the Fethullah Gülen movement, or if the ruling party instead chooses to opt for cooperation with the Turkish armed forces, notably concerning the Southeast and Northern Iraq. The military is ready for such cooperation, but demands that the AKP sever its bonds with Fethullah Gülen.

ÖZKÖK: THE ARROGANCE OF THE CIVILIANS
Ertuğrul Özkök in Hürriyet observes that the EU process has been instructive for everyone in Turkish society. We have all learned a lot more than we knew before about democracy. No doubt, those in the military have also gained new insights during this process. I believe that the officers’ corps has increasingly adjusted itself to the requirements of democratic rule. However, the question is whether democratization should be pursued by purposefully hurting the pride of the military, by demeaning them. I note that there are many who crave for revenge and arrogantly attack the military. Yet, the military is fighting in the Southeast. It is an institution whose morale needs to be bolstered. Will the attacks succeed in emasculating the military? Yes, they may very well succeed. But those civilians who take an arrogant posture against the military should be aware that many of the dictatorships in the world are in fact civilian creations.

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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