The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 13, 3 July 2009

ANALYSIS

Growing Intolerance threatens Turkey's National Cohesion
Halil M. Karaveli
Turkish society is marred by cultural, religious, ethnic and political polarization. Indeed, the polarization runs so deep as to conjure up the vision of a country divided into metaphorically gated communities having nothing in common with each other except their mutual contempt. According to several recent surveys, reciprocal, societal intolerance toward the “other” is widespread, mirroring the undeclared civil war that rages among the institutions of the state. Turkey will have to be renegotiated and reinvented if the country is to escape from the present impasse. Yet, Turkey’s historical experience of nation-building suggests that the prospects of managing and eventually overcoming differences are not promising.

America's Withdrawal from Iraq: Implications for the Kurdish Issue in Iraq and Turkey
Tülin Daloglu
For a long time, the relationship between Turkey and Iraq has been defined by the fact that Iraqi Kurds provide a safe haven for the separatist Kurdish terrorist organization, the PKK. Yet Gen. Ilker Basbug, Turkey’s Chief of Staff, said recently in Washington that Iraq’s Kurdish region is no longer a safe place for PKK terrorists. that gain cannot yet be counted as permanent. Next January, Iraq will see general elections as well as a referendum on controversial issues like the future of Kirkuk. With U.S. troops withdrawing from Iraqi cities, escalating high-profile attacks raise concerns about the Iraqi forces’ ability to secure the country. In this make it-or-break it year for Iraq, the Kurds must decide the price they will pay to retain Kirkuk inside their territory. They will also have to decide whether they are willing to risk a possible breakaway from Iraq.

What the Columnists Say
The political tension in Ankara shows no signs of abating. The columnists draw the conclusion that the General staff has been put on the defensive, and that the attempts of General İlker Başbuğ to redress the balance in the favor of the military fail to achieve their aim. The disclosure of a blueprint for the overthrow of the AKP government that was allegedly prepared within the military has prompted the General staff to issue stark declarations. The Chief of the General staff, General İlker Başbuğ, held a high profile press conference together with the rest of the top brass, and responded to the accusations by claiming that the military is the target of “asymmetric psychological warfare”. Only hours later, the parliament passed a law which accords civilian courts jurisdiction over military personnel. The General staff immediately declared its opposition to the law. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that the police are the “guarantor” of the internal security, a statement that was generally interpreted by the columnists as another sign of the changing nature of the civilian-military relations.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Prospects for a 'Torn' Turkey: A Secular and Unitary Future?, by Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli, October 2008.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes guest analyses, which are normally solicited. Submissions are nevertheless welcome.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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