The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 12, 19 June 2009

ANALYSIS

General Staff Wages Two-Front Battle, Against Coup Plotters and Gülenists
Halil M. Karaveli
Once again, commentators raise the question whether there is a risk of a military coup in Turkey. There is no reason at all to believe that the General staff entertains any such thoughts. However, recent developments have nevertheless provided a reminder that the military’s position remains delicate. The Chief of the General staff, General Ilker Başbuğ, is in fact engaged in an awkward battle on two fronts, against old coup habits in the military, and against the challenge posed by the Islamic movement of Fethullah Gülen.

Iranian Crisis Catches Turkish Government Off Guard
Svante E. Cornell
After two decades of deep tensions with Iran, the AKP government has largely rebuilt relations with Turkey’s historical rival and neighbor. Yet its responses to the Iranian crisis – in which Prime Minister Erdoğan was embarrassingly among the first to congratulate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad upon his highly questionable re-election – appears to question the foundations of this rapprochement. Moreover, it indicates the limitations of Ankara’s newly found “zero-problem” foreign policy, which appears to mean that Turkey has no opinions on the basis of either interests, values or principles in its neighborhood.

What the Columnists Say
The publication in the pro-government Taraf daily of what was presented as a blueprint for a campaign that the military allegedly prepared to wage against the AKP government and against the Fethullah Gülen movement has dominated the Turkish debate. The reactions in the media once again revealed Turkey as a sharply divided country. Secularist-nationalist commentators denounced the document as a forgery, suggesting that it had been “planted” by the police. Pro-government commentators, on the other hand, concluded that the blueprint is another proof that the military remains uncomfortable with democratic rule and continues to scheme against the AKP government.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Prospects for a 'Torn' Turkey: A Secular and Unitary Future?, by Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli, October 2008.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes guest analyses, which are normally solicited. Submissions are nevertheless welcome.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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