Turkey Analyst,
vol. 2 no. 10
22 May 2009

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY


The confrontation between the Islamic conservative/liberal alliance and the nationalist-secularist camp continues to set the tone of Turkish politics. The funeral of Türkan Saylan, the founder of the secularist “Association for the defense of the modern way of life”, turned into a manifestation by the secularist opposition. The change of leadership in the Democratic party was widely interpreted as an attempt to revive a secularist center right alternative. While liberal and conservative commentators are worried that the secularist manifestation at Saylan’s funeral and the election of a new DP leader are part of the machinations of the Ergenekon organization, others see the former event as evidence that the attempts of Islamic conservative forces to incriminate all opposition is backfiring, and are hopeful about the prospects of a new center right.

CAKIR:  THE ATTEMPT TO INCRIMINATE SAYLAN BACKFIRED
Rusen Cakir in Vatan writes that the funeral of Türkan Saylan became a powerful demonstration against those forces that had tried to incriminate her by including her in the Ergenekon investigation. By doing that, they only succeeded in enhancing her standing in society. In the end, the attempt by “a force” to criminalize Saylan’s “Association for the defense of the modern way of life” (which offers education opportunities for destitute children, not least girls) in order to monopolize the education sector backfired. The question is why that “force” failed to calculate what the effects would be, how it could commit such a strategic mistake. The answer to that question gives us a better appreciation of the players and their respective positions in the formidable power struggle that rages in our country. The fact that the neo-nationalist movement has failed to mobilize any significant support either inside the country or abroad, and has been hit hard by the Ergenekon investigation, has emboldened its enemies. They have in short become overconfident.  They have acquired the habit of including everyone they dislike politically in the coup plot case.

CANDAR: QUO VADIS?
No one can doubt that Türkan Saylan was a very special person worthy of respect, writes Cengiz Candar in Radikal. But it is also a fact that her death has been used by those who seek to foment trouble. Saylan’s funeral was above all a manifestation against the Ergenekon investigation. The military top brass that were present was applauded and nationalist, Kemalist slogans were chanted. I don’t know if it’s really the case, but there is enough evidence to suggest that an Ergenekon cell may have gone active: The republican rallies gather again, artists and writers march in Istanbul, expressing solidarity with the Ergenekon detainees, and a court in Ankara has ruled that President Abdullah Gül will stand trial, accused of “fraud”. Saylan’s funeral was the most impressive so far of the pro-Ergenekon manifestations. Could it be that we are headed towards a great misfortune, with the forces behind these machinations organizing mass killings and other atrocities? Quo Vadis?

ALTAN: THE LOOMING DANGER
Ahmet Altan in Taraf warns of a looming danger: the attempts to use the law against the AKP are being revived. The secularist rallies have started again. The masses that gather at these rallies do not constitute the majority, but they represent a quarter of the population. It is a significant minority that can be exploited and manipulated by the Ergenekon conspiracy. There may be massacres and other atrocities ahead. The only force that can prevent such a development is the AKP. The AKP can and should act in a way that assuages the worried, urban secular middle class. These people are genuinely worried that the secular way of life is threatened. They risk being used by the Ergenekon conspirators, who in fact do not care so much about any threat against secularism as they feel threatened by the AKP’s efforts to bring Turkey closer to the West and the European Union. However, the conservative policies that are implemented at municipal level by AKP mayors create the impression that the party has indeed trouble with the modern way of life. If the AKP succeeds in dispelling that impression, and if it revives its EU-oriented efforts, then the Ergenekon conspiracy will lose its popular base. Otherwise, I fear that we are headed toward trouble. And this time, it’s going to hit us really hard.

SAHIN: WHY ARE THEY SO BOTHERED BY THE DP?
Haluk Sahin in Radikal notes that the leadership change in the Democratic party has provoked negative comments from liberal and conservative quarters. For years, they had nothing but praise for Süleyman Demirel; now they are harshly critical of him. Why? DP is a small party, to which they had paid little attention until now. How come they are now all worked up? It is because the attempt to revive the center-right poses a potential threat to the AKP. Voters seldom change political camps, they change parties within the same camp; that means that the conservative Felicity party and a center-right party are going to be the very likely alternatives for voters who are dissatisfied with the AKP. Can DP become the center-right alternative? It might. That is why the attempt to revive its fortunes causes such consternation among those liberals who have invested heavily in their mutually beneficial relationship with the AKP.

AKYOL: DEMIREL AND CINDORUK DON’T STAND A CHANCE
Taha Akyol in Milliyet argues that Süleyman Demirel and Hüsamettin Cindoruk do not stand a chance of success. The center-right that Demirel claims to represent was always close to the people. The Justice party (that Demirel headed) of the 1960s was not the party of the state. But Demirel and Cindoruk abandoned the traditions of the center-right in 1997, when they conspired to bring down the coalition government of Necmettin Erbakan. And did they side with the people in 2007, when the military issued its e-memorandum, when obstacles were laid out against the election of Abdullah Gül as president? It is the fact that it stands close to the people that explains the success of the AKP. Cindoruk is sure to get some headlines, but he will never succeed in transforming the DP into a party with a mass following.

CEMAL: DEMIREL HAS DISAPPOINTED ME
Hasan Cemal in Milliyet expresses his disappointment with Süleyman Demirel. Despite having been deposed by the military twice, Demirel never challenged the red lines of the regime of military stewardship. He has represented a conservatism which always had a restricted understanding of democracy, which never bothered to defend the rights of those who dissented from its own views. But it is the Demirel of the last decade that has disappointed me the most. I had expected him to become the wise man of Turkish politics; instead, he joined the ranks of those who have tried to prevent the dream of EU membership becoming reality, who have been busy throwing up barriers for instance to a solution of the Cyprus issue. And finally, he has sided with Ergenekon. Now, Demirel is trying to get control of the Democratic party. How can you reconcile militarism and Ergenekonism with democracy?

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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