Turkey Analyst,
vol. 2 no. 9
8 May 2009

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY


Turkish commentators interpret the cabinet revision as an attempt by the AKP to revive its fortunes after the setback in the recent, local elections. The conservative tilt of the new government causes some concern, and even those who are sympathetic to the AKP question if the strategy will pay off. The significance of the appointment of Bülent Arinc, a pronounced conservative, as deputy prime minister, was given particular attention.

ÇAKIR: DONING THE COSTUME OF THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK MOVEMENT WOULD BE SUICIDE FOR THE AKP
Rusen Çakir in Vatan notes that several commentators have interpreted the cabinet revision as a return by Prime Minister Erdogan to the core of the AKP. Although such an interpretation does contain a portion of truth, Çakir believes that it is exaggerated and in the final analysis misleading. It is obvious that the rise of the staunchly conservative Felicity party has had an impact on the cabinet revision. However, in the March 29 local elections, the AKP was primarily defeated by the Kurdish nationalist DTP in the Southeast and by the Republican people’s party, CHP, and by the Turkish Nationalist MHP in the Western regions. Against this background, it would amount to suicide by the AKP if Erdogan takes measure only of the rise of the Felicity party. On the other hand, it is difficult to see how the AKP will be able to cope with contenders other than the Felicity party, with CHP, MHP and even DTP simultaneously with its new crew. “I don’t conclude that Erdogan has abandoned the ambition to ‘reach out to the exterior’. I think that Erdogan (and apparently also Abdullah Gül) has abandoned the strategy of ‘opening up to by importing from the outside’, choosing to conserve the base of the party with the help of trusted persons in order to eventually implement a strategy of ‘controlled opening’” to the exterior.

AKYOL: ARINC DOES NOT REPRESENT THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK
Taha Akyol in Milliyet observes that the appointment of Bülent Arinc to deputy prime minister is what has caught most attention. Although Arinc’s decency is generally acknowledged, there are also those who worry that he poses a threat to secularism. Secularist commentators warn that he has a background in the (religiously conservative) National outlook movement. They even go as far as suggesting that the new AKP cabinet is a National outlook cabinet. Yes, Arinc is issued from that movement, but he was actually one of the first to rebel against its anti-Western posture. Arinc is in favor of EU membership. The National outlook movement is not. And yes, Bülent Arinc is a religious conservative. But his take on secularism is in fact liberal. He does not oppose secularism; he only calls for its adaptation to the current world. But he does have a sharp tongue, and his statements have often been misinterpreted. It is not a risk-free enterprise to raise questions about secularism.

KORKMAZ: BÜLENT ARINC REPRESENTS WISDOM
Taner Korkmaz in Yeni Safak rejects the interpretation that the cabinet revision signifies a return to the conservative National outlook core of the AKP. That is a superficial, prejudiced interpretation. Those who make such assertions in particular see the appointment of Bülent Arinc as deputy prime minister as evidence. Arinc is one of the founders of the AKP. He was instrumental in making the AKP a force for change during its first term. Since it was reelected in 2007, the AKP has lost its zeal, and during that time Arinc has been absent. Now, he will contribute with his wisdom to the government. He will be especially useful as a source of much needed internal criticism of the conduct of the AKP. Bülent Arinc is accused of being anti-secular. He is misinterpreted in this regard. What he wants is to adapt our secularism to modern, universal norms. Arinc will be one of three ministers that will represent the government in the National Security council. That has led to speculations that he will use that platform to engage in confrontation with the military. Yes, Arinc has been an unrelenting critic of the coup plotters in the military. But he has stated that he has a high regard of the Chief of the General staff General Ilker Basbug, whom he sees as democratic minded. Arinc will make a contribution for the democratization of the role of the military.

SAHIN: THE DUBIOUS ROLE OF PRESIDENT GÜL
There are two questions that have been absent in the commentaries to the cabinet revision, writes Haluk Sahin in Radikal. One is how this change will affect the relations and the balance between the AKP and the Gülen brotherhood.  The reflexes of the National outlook movement are traditionally more “nationalist” and anti-American. Meanwhile, it is a known fact that the Gülenists represent the opposite stance. Will this difference in reflexes create problems in internal and foreign relations? The second question concerns the decisive role played by President Abdullah Gül in putting together the new government. According to the constitution, the president is supposed to stand above party politics. Prime Minister Erdogan has admitted that Gül was active in the formation of the government. Has Gül possibly overstepped the boundaries of the system which prescribes a neutral role for him?

KÜCÜKKAYA: THOSE WHO WERE DISMISSED FROM THE GOVERNMENT ARE TREATED UNFAIRLY
The major cabinet revision is about “reparation, treatment and return to the core”, Ismail Kücükkaya writes in Aksam. It is the results of the March 29 local elections that prompted Prime Minister Erdogan to implement such a comprehensive revision. The AKP wants to return to the more glorious days of its first term, in anticipation of the general election that will be held in 2011, which will probably be followed by a presidential election in 2012. The two years since the election of 2007 have been lost years for the AKP and for Turkey. Our energies have been consumed by the closure case and by the Ergenekon investigation. And it must be conceded that the government has generally been weak; it has is in large measure been driven solely by the energy of Erdogan himself. Yet, those have departed from the government have not been given a fair treatment by the public. Take for example the former Education minister, Hüseyin Celik: He became vastly unpopular, accused of catering to the demands of the religious conservatives. In fact, he was always the target of the reactionaries, and he fought relentlessly against the radicals of his party. He succeeded in increasing the budget of the Education ministry to a level never before attained, and he implemented a policy of free distribution of school books to the children.

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

To Subscribe:
To subscribe to the Turkey Analyst email announcements, please contact Martina Klimesova with an email containing "subscribe Turkey Analyst" in the subject line.