Turkey Analyst,
vol. 2 no. 7
10 April 2009

WHAT THE COLUMNISTS SAY

The local elections held on March 29 and the visit of U.S. president Barack Obama to Turkey were the major events of the last fortnight. The setback that the ruling Justice and Development Party suffered in the elections was generally perceived as a warning, although the increase in the support for the opposition parties is not viewed as portending an end to the AKP era. President Barack Obama’s strongly worded support for Turkish secularism caught the attention in particular of secularist commentators.

AKYOL: A LESSON ABOUT SECULARISM
Taha Akyol, a conservative, notes that the local elections of 2009 were held in an altogether different atmosphere than the one that prevailed at the time of the general elections of 2007. In 2007, Turkey was experiencing good times in the economy, while there was a sharp polarization over the issue of secularism with the military intervening in politics. This time around, the economy is in crisis, and secularism was a non-issue in the campaign. Deniz Baykal, leader of the opposition CHP, used the word only once during his campaign, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan twice. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, CHP’s candidate for mayor in Istanbul even declared that “I have not detected any reactionary tendencies among those wearing the headscarf.” The most important lesson of the elections is that the opposition stands a good chance when it ceases to act as the watchdog of militant secularism.

EMRE: THE DEGENERATION OF THE AKP
Akif Emre, a columnist in pro-AKP daily Yeni Safak is harsh in his verdict of the AKP. The setback that the governing party suffered in these elections has nothing to do with the economic crisis or with any misunderstanding of the message of the party. It is about a government fatigue that has evolved into a political degeneration of the AKP. The party that once had set out to be the representative of the marginalized poor in the suburbs has become an establishment force. When it once used to campaign at grassroots level, the AKP now relied on mass rallies and on the charisma of the party leader. If the election result still was not disastrous, it was due to the fact the opposition was not perceived as credible enough. But the fact that an elitist party as CHP was able to position itself as the representative of the downtrodden, with Kemal Kilicdaroglu (CHP mayor candidate in Istanbul) given the nickname Gandhi, was one of the greatest ironies of these elections.

ALTAN: WHAT THE AKP SHOULD DO
Ahmet Altan in Taraf observes that the AKP is the only party that is present in every part of Turkey. In fact, AKP is the only real political party. It is so because it is able to appeal to a broad range of groups. In the Southeast, the AKP counters Kurdish nationalism with the “religious card”. In central Anatolia, it resists the nationalism of the MHP with its conservative liberalism. In the Western regions, it attracts voters by opposing the Kemalists with a pro-European stance. However, at the same time, this diversity also causes problems for the AKP. When its uses the religious card in the Southeast, it scares Westernized women in the Western regions, and runs the risk of being shut down by the custodians of the system in Ankara. In fact, what the AKP should do is to rely on its conservative liberal heartland, where the party is uncontested. The religious card should be left to the Felicity party, and nationalism to the MHP. And the AKP cannot compete with the CHP as the “party of state”. Thus it should nurse its conservative liberal supporters, that conservative bourgeoisie which trades with the world while remaining pious.

SELÇUK: OBAMA’S LESSON ABOUT SECULARISM AND ATATÜRK
Ilhan Selcuk, the publisher of the secularist daily Cumhuriyet, rejoices at the message that U.S. president Barack Obama delivered in his speech to the Turkish parliament. What did Obama say? He said that Atatürk shaped his history, and that the secular democracy is his greatest legacy. Isn’t it strange? How come that we have never heard such praise lavished on the accomplishments of the Kemalist revolution from our own new president Abdullah Gül or from Prime Minister Erdogan? What ran through their minds when they sat there listening to the lecture of Barack Obama? At least, Obama did not come in vain. He did a good thing by lecturing us about secularism.

BAYRAMOGLU: DEMOCRACY BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT WITH OBAMA
Ali Bayramoglu writes that with Barack Obama, Turkish-American relations have entered a new phase. These relations will now become more comprehensive, after having been restricted to security matters during the Bush era. The messages that Obama delivered during his visit showed that issues about democracy and human rights will be given a new priority. It was also clear that the United States in that perspective intends to be more sensitive to religious diversity. That in turn represents a chance for Turkey. Let’s just hope that unexpected events don’t derail this development.

ERGIN: THE MESSAGE OF OBAMA
Sedat Ergin observes that U.S. president Barack Obama in forceful words acknowledged the lasting importance of Atatürk’s vision and legacy, and that the stressed the centrality of secularism. The notion of “moderate Islam” of the former U.S. administration had created suspicion among those in Turkey who are sensitive about secularism that the United States had ceased to accord any importance to the latter. Now, there is no longer any cause for worry on that matter. It is also worth noting that Obama underlined the democratic implications with Atatürk’s legacy. That is important too, as it demarcates against those who would like to interpret that legacy in authoritarian terms. Turkey is one of the countries in the world with which the United States has the most special of relations. Obviously, that fact will enhance the international standing of Turkey. However, the reorientation of U.S. policies and the new agenda of U.S.–Turkish relations can also create new areas of high pressure on the internal political front.

© Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, 2009. This article may be reprinted provided that the following sentence be included: "This article was first published in the Turkey Analyst (www.turkeyanalyst.org), a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center".

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are often written by the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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