The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 7, 10 April 2009

ANALYSIS

Local Election Results Reveal A Fractured Turkey
M. K. Kaya and Halil M. Karaveli
The results of the local elections in Turkey held on March 29 were a disappointment for the governing Justice and development party, AKP. For the first time, the AKP experienced an electoral setback. Conversely, the opposition parties have regained some confidence. Yet Turkey remains as divided as ever. Indeed, the electoral map of Turkey reveals a country fractured into four distinctive parts, with the liberals confined to the coastline.

Erdogan, Azerbaijan and the Armenian Question
Svante E. Cornell
The past several weeks have seen the level of diplomatic rumoring on a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement reach new heights. The Turkish government embarked on this endeavor seriously last Summer, a move that could redraw the geopolitics of the Caucasus in unpredictable ways, depending on how it is undertaken. While the initiative had much to do with Turkish-US relations, the Obama visit paradoxically coincided with Ankara being forced to hit the brakes on the issue, at least temporarily. It has once again been made clear that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict remains the major security challenge in the region, and that it needs to be tackled head on.

What the Columnists Say
The local elections held on March 29 and the visit of U.S. president Barack Obama to Turkey were the major events of the last fortnight. The setback that the ruling Justice and Development Party suffered in the elections was generally perceived as a warning, although the increase in the support for the opposition parties is not viewed as portending an end to the AKP era. President Barack Obama’s strongly worded support for Turkish secularism caught the attention in particular of secularist commentators.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Prospects for a 'Torn' Turkey: A Secular and Unitary Future?, by Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli, October 2008.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes guest analyses, which are normally solicited. Submissions are nevertheless welcome.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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