The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 2, 30 January 2008

ANALYSIS

The Politics of Personality: Erdogan's Irascible Authoritarianism
Gareth Jenkins
In recent months, the policies of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have become increasingly shaped by the personality of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Freed from perceived constraints, Erdogan now often appears to be driven by his emotions rather than considered deliberation. Even if his confrontational style has boosted his domestic public popularity, any short-term personal political gains are likely to be more than offset by the long-term damage to Turkey’s economy and its relations with Europe and the US.

THe MHP's Turkish-Islamic Synthesis Could Challenge the AKP's Hegemony
M.K. Kaya and Halil M. Karaveli
The upcoming local elections in Turkey will be a test of whether the ruling Justice and development party (AKP) can be successfully challenged by the opposition; indeed, of whether there is any viable opposition left to speak of. As they try to navigate in a political landscape increasingly dominated by Islamic conservatism, both the leftist Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the right-wing Nationalist Action Party, MHP, are seeking ways to reinvent themselves, hoping to appeal to a broader electorate. The efforts are beset by ideological contradictions and ambiguities, but MHP is best placed to challenge the AKP.

NEWS DIGEST: THE FORTNIGHT IN REVIEW

I. What the Columnists Say
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan'a spectacular demonstration at the World Economic Forum in Davos continued to reverberate in the commentaries of Turkish columnists during the last fortnight.  The stance of Erdogan against Israel has generally been hailed by columnists of all political colors, including by secularist columnists. However, in general, the columnists do not expect that Turkey will turn its back on the West. The relation with Israel is expected to remain as important as ever.  Another topic commented by the columnists is the continued efforts of the secularist opposition party, CHP, to endear itself to the religiously conservative electorate, most recently by the proposal to open Koran courses in every neighborhood.

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Prospects for a 'Torn' Turkey: A Secular and Unitary Future?, by Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli, October 2008.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes guest analyses, which are normally solicited. Submissions are nevertheless welcome.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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