The Turkey Analyst

Vol. 2 no. 1, 16 January 2008

ANALYSIS



Turkey Divided over Meaning of Ergenekon Investigation
Halil M. Karaveli
As the investigation into the alleged Ergenekon conspiracy continues unabated, the polarization of Turkish society deepens. According to one interpretation of the unfolding drama, a mortal threat to democracy has been averted by the prosecutors. The opposing narrative holds that a “republic of fear”, intolerant of political dissent, is being instituted. In the final analysis, one interpretation does not exclude the other.

Ankara and the Crisis in the Middle East: Domestic Considerations
M. K. Kaya
The unexpectedly harsh Turkish reaction to the Israeli offensive in Gaza has understandably raised many eyebrows, given the implications of a shift in Turkey’s foreign policy. It remains unclear to what extent Prime Minister Erdogan’s rhetoric is related to a growing sense of Islamic solidarity underpinning Turkish foreign policy, and how much can be related simply to the upcoming local elections, where Erdogan is anxious not to be outflanked by the growing, rival Islamist Felicity party. In any case, the event – and the growing role accorded to emotions – is an indicator of the shifting decision-making structure in Turkish foreign policy, whereby the traditional foreign policy establishment is being marginalized in favor of the Prime Minister’s own inner cabinet.

NEWS DIGEST: THE FORTNIGHT IN REVIEW

I. What the Columnists Say
The issue of the alleged Ergenekon conspiracy, whether or not such a conspiracy does exist and the way the investigation is being conducted preoccupies Turkish columnists. While the most pronounced, secularist critics of the Islamic conservative rule dismiss the allegations altogether, seeing them as a way of silencing opposition, commentaries on the opposite side of the ideological spectrum unreservedly salute the investigation. A third group in the middle, while taking the threat of a coup conspiracy seriously, is worried that the prosecution is mishandled from a legal point of view.

II. Domestic News Digest

III. Foreign News Digest

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NEW Silk Road Paper published

Prospects for a 'Torn' Turkey: A Secular and Unitary Future?, by Svante E. Cornell and Halil M. Karaveli, October 2008.


The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes guest analyses, which are normally solicited. Submissions are nevertheless welcome.

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The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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