Turkey Analyst, 9 April 2008

NEWS DIGEST, March 31-April 8, 2008

SECTION II: FOREIGN RELATIONS

Summary: The EU’s reaction to Turkey’s turmoil was a leading issue, with EU ambassadors seeking to calm down the AKP and make it adopt a less unilateralist approach to governance. The European Court of Justice’s decision to strike down the EU inclusion of the PKK on its list of terrorist groups also was widely reported.

REHN WILL INFORM THE EU COMMISSION MEMBERS TOMORROW
1 April
The EU commissioner responsible for the enlargement, Olli Rehn, is expected to inform the Commission members about the case to ban the AKP after the constitutional court accepted it. However, at this stage it is not expected that the Commission will ask for a pause in the accession negotiations. Halting the negotiation process is only possible with a qualified majority vote in the EU Council after receiving advice from eight member states or the Commission. In the meanwhile, the efforts of the AKP to amend the constitution under the pretext of political reforms are recognized. But it is unlikely that the EU will react to such a limited reform. An EU ambassador said, “At this stage I think that we should not be very concerned if the AKP proposes a package that will only deal with the prevention of the closure of political parties and leaves the rest of the reforms to be conducted at a later stage. The AKPs efforts are logical and the developments are rather absurd. The EU does not think that secularism is endangered in Turkey” (Sabah)

EU WANTS AGREEMENT OVER THE CONSTITUTION
2 April
The constitutional court’s acceptance of the AKP case has generated a number of reactions from Europe. The European Parliament’s Turkey rapporteur Ria Oomen-Rujiten said that Turkey is gradually undermining the parliament’s position. The rapporteur requested that a new constitution be prepared in an environment of agreement. The Turkey–EU Joint Parliament Commission Co-President Joost Lagendjik stated that 2008 also appeared to develop into a lost year with regard to the EU process. Regarding the climate in Turkey Ms. Oomen-Rujiten said, “The current developments affect the market in Turkey. This situation should not slow down the reform efforts of Turkey, which declared the year 2008 as the year of reform. This political crisis is undoubtedly slowing down the reforms.” (Radikal)

LE MONDE: THOSE WHO OPPOSE TURKEY WILL USE THIS CASE
3 April
Reactions from abroad regarding the case to close the AKP continue to be voiced. In its analysis on latest developments regarding the AKP case, the French newspaper Le Monde stated, “Closing a political party which acquired 46.6% of the votes in the 2007 parliamentary elections is a veritable legal coup.” The newspaper identified those who oppose a Muslim country’s membership to the EU as insincere and stated that it was predictable that the case against the AKP would be used as an argument to question the state of Turkey’s democracy. Le Monde further argued that if the Kurdish-rooted DTP (Democratic Society Party) were closed, 54% of the votes would brutally be cut off. The newspaper also reported that the AKPs decision to abolish the Islamic headscarf ban instantly after its victory in the elections gave way to the emergence of suspicion among secular and liberal circles on whether the AKP had a concealed agenda. (Milliyet)

IN TURKEY WE SUPPORT DEMOCRACY, NOT THE AKP
3 April
EU commissioner responsible from the enlargement, Olli Rehn, stated that they were supporting democracy, not the AKP in Turkey. While pointing to the charter of the Venice Commission regarding the closure of political parties, Mr. Rehn said, “According to the charter, in order to close a political party the party must have conducted activities including violence and must have acted in violation with the democratic constitutional orders. The case opened by the Chief Prosecutor does not fit these criteria.” Mr. Rehn stated that in accordance with EU standards, member states should address political concerns such as the Islamic headscarf issue discussed in Turkey in the parliament, and not in the courtrooms. (Sabah)

TURKEY REACTS TO THE EU COURT’S DECISION TO REMOVE PKK FROM THE LIST
3 April
The Luxembourg-based European Court of First Instance has decided to withdraw the PKK from their list of terrorist organizations. The decisions attracted harsh criticism from Turkey and Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Çiçek said, “The decision of behalf of Europe, who constantly refers to justice and democracy, is deplorable. We should ask them if the PKK is a charity institution if it is not a terrorist organization.” The court stated that the inclusion of the PKK on the terrorist organizations list lacked “an adequate statement of reason”. It said the PKK and its political wing, known as KONGRA-GEL, were not in a position “to understand, clearly and unequivocally, the reasoning” that led EU governments to add them to the terror list. The Turkish Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that the PKK remained on the EU list of terrorist groups regardless of the decision of the court. A written statement held that “Our initial analysis of the ruling suggests that the court issued an opinion on whether the European Council's decision complied with the EU laws, not on whether the PKK/KONGRA-GEL is a terrorist organization”. (Hurriyet)

ERDOĞAN: THE RULING WILL NOT EFFECT EU’S DECISION
4 April
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan stated, “The decision of the European Court of Justice concerning the terrorist organization is not related to the substance of the issue. This is just a statement to correct a procedural mistake.” He continued by saying that the decision would not affect the position of the EU concerning the terrorist organization PKK.  The Luxembourg-based European Court of First Instance, the EUs second highest court, annulled the inclusion of the outlawed PKK on a list of terrorist organizations whose funds must be frozen in accordance with the fight against terrorism. The court said the EU had not properly justified its decision. Both the Turkish Foreign Ministry and the EU said that the ruling would not have any practical effect. (Hurriyet)

UNITED STATES: THE PKK DESERVES TO BE IN THE TERROR LIST
4 April
A spokesman for the U.S. Department of State, Tom Casey, stated that the PKK is on the U.S. Department of State’s list of terrorist organizations and added that they have no plans to change it. Mr. Casey said, “As you know, we are making a list of foreign terrorist organizations in line with U.S. jurisdiction. There is no plan on the agenda of the U.S. Congress. I think that the PKK deserves to be on that list and with regard the decision (of the EU court) I do not believe that it will have any effect on American policy toward the PKK.” When asked a question about Cyprus, Mr. Casey stated that they were pleased with the opening of the Lokmaci gate. Mr. Casey said, “We are encouraged to see the Turkish and Greek Cypriot Leaders come to an agreement. This will increase the opportunities for the economic and social transformation of the two societies. We applaud the two leaders for their efforts to begin the negotiations for a comprehensive solution under the supervision of the United Nations.” (Vatan)

EU AMBASSADORS: GIVE UP ‘MY WAY OR THE HIGHWAY’ APPROACH
6 April
The ambassadors of the EU member states assembled at a meeting in Ankara to evaluate recent developments in Turkey. “There is the freedom to cover your head but also the freedom not to cover it. The ‘my way or the highway’ approach to freedom should be eliminated”, the ambassadors stated.
The Ankara ambassadors of the EU member states decided that the common message the President of the EU Commission José Manuel Barroso and the High Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn needed to deliver to the AKP government was that “the EU should not come to your mind only when you need it”. During their visit to Ankara on April10-12, Mr. Barroso and Mr. Rehn are to remind the Turkish government that it should advance confidently in its way toward the EU. Domestic developments should not become an obstacle for this. The two-year period of inaction should be put to an end, with the acceleration of the implementation of the EU reforms. The ambassadors called for a raised awareness about the need for such reforms, and reiterated that the banning of a party is not a correct method. The ambassadors also referred to comments and evaluations in the Turkish media about “the growing neighborhood pressure (about conforming to religious norms) in Turkey and to the experience of divisions in Turkish society” due to the government’s attitude. Relating to the declaration of EU High Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn that “the process of negotiation with Turkey can be revised and even halted”, the EU-ambassadors stated, and “We have not reached this stage yet. On the contrary, the Turkish government should be all the more encouraged to continue with its EU reforms”. (Hurriyet)

BARROSO AND REHN WILL VISIT TURKEY
7 April
The President of the EU Commission José Manuel Barroso and the EU commissioner responsible for enlargement Olli Rehn, will visit Turkey on April 10–11. Among the issues featuring on their agenda are the AKP case and 10th EU harmonization package. The visit will begin on Thursday when Mr. Barroso and Mr. Rehn will meet Turkish President Abdullah Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Meetings will also include the CHP (Republican People’s Party) leader Deniz Baykal and other political leaders as well as representatives of non-governmental organizations. During the visit, which the EU Commission stressed was planned long ago and has nothing to do with the recent developments, Mr. Barroso and Mr. Rehn will underline the importance of the reform process and deliver messages supporting the reform efforts. Commission officials will issue a warning for the policy makers not to jeopardize the EU negotiations process. (Sabah)

TURKEY MAY BE INCLUDED INTO THE RIVAL PROJECT OF NABUCCO
7 April
Turkey’s inclusion in the Russian alternative to the Nabucco pipeline project, South Stream, is on the agenda. Studies on the route of the pipeline demonstrate that it must include either Turkey or Ukraine to the project. It is said that Moscow prefers Ankara to Ukraine. It was understood that the project, designed by Russia and Italy as an alternative to the Nabucco project, aims to transfer natural gas to EU countries via Turkey, and thus cannot exist without the inclusion of Turkey. If the pipeline is built directly under the Black Sea, its route traverses Ukrainian economic territory. The other alternative traverses Turkish economic space. While experts underline that the project is still at development stage, they mention that Russia would prefer to work with Turkey instead of Ukraine. (Zaman)

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are unsigned, being the consensus view of the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses, which are normally solicited.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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