Turkey Analyst, 26 March 2008

NEWS DIGEST, March 14-25, 2008

SECTION II: FOREIGN RELATIONS

The chief prosecutor’s launching of a court case to close down the ruling AKP dominated Turkey’s domestic scene, prompting a growing debate within and outside Turkey both of the merits of the case and the closing down of parties in general. In addition, the mid-night summoning of oppositional figures in connection with the Ergenekon investigation prompting speculation of the linkage between the two processes.

CHRISTOFIAS: WE ARE READY TO REACH A VIABLE SOLUTION
19 March
On the subject of the upcoming meeting with the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat on Friday, Greek Cypriot President Dimitris Christofias emphasized his aspirations for a viable solution. Mr. Christofias stressed the importance of preparations in order to ensure progress. He added that his side was ready to work hard and that the two sides must reach a consensus, as a new failure would be devastating for the future. (Hurriyet)

CRUCIAL DAY FOR CYPRUS
20 March
On Friday, the two leaders of Cyprus will meet for the first time, and the European Union and the United States are looking forward to the meeting. However, the two sides have differences regarding the process. The opening of the Lokmaci gate is anticipated as a concrete outcome of the meeting. It is widely professed that a new “window of opportunity” will open after the end of Mr. Papadopoulos’ term. Turkey has confidence in this opportunity and is attempting to initiate a new negotiation process. The Turkish and Greek sides acknowledge that the prospect of uniting the island will be lost if the efforts to instigate a new negotiation process fail. As mentioned, both sides have significant differences concerning the process. While the Greek side wants to base the negotiations on the March 8 agreement, the Turkish side claims the Annan Plan as the basis of the negotiations. (Sabah)

TWO LEADERS OF CYPRUS AGREED TO START NEW PROCESS
21 March
The first meeting between Mr. Christofias and Mr. Talat since Mr. Christofias’ election victory raised hopes for reopening talks that are very important for Turkey's aspirations for EU membership. "This is a new era. Our target is to find a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem as soon as possible," Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat stated after the meeting. Mr. Christofias stated that they were optimistic and they both agreed to cooperate in good will. He said, "I look forward [...] to having results in three months' time which will help us maintain a dialogue under the auspices of the Secretary General”. The leaders also agreed to open a crossing point on Ledra Street. It is said that the opening of the crossing point will increase confidence and improve the atmosphere for the difficult negotiations ahead. (Hurriyet)

CHENEY “COMING FOR IRAN”
23 March
The Vice President of the United States will arrive in Turkey tomorrow. In his tour, which includes the Middle Eastern states, it is said that Mr. Cheney aims to search for support for a possible operation against Iran and will request the use of Turkish bases. It is said that Mr. Cheney explains the reasons for a military operation by the United States on the DEBKAfile news site, which is known for its affiliation with the Israeli intelligence services. A high level authority speaking to the website stated that the main topic of discussion on Mr. Cheney’s agenda would be Iran. On the subject of Mr. Cheney’s visit to Ankara, it is said that Turkey is one of the most important countries in the alleged military plans as U.S. warplanes and missiles headed for Iran must use Turkish airspace and bases. (Sabah)

LAGENDJIK: 2008 RISKS BEING A LOST YEAR FOR TURKEY
23 March
The co-chair of the EU-Turkey Mixed Parliamentary Commission, Joost Lagendjik, stated that 2008 could be a lost year for Turkey. Refusing to comment on the substance of the Ergenekon operation, Mr. Lagendjik expressed his disapproval of the way journalist İlhan Selçuk was taken into custody. Mr. Lagendjik stated that two camps have emerged in Turkey, and added that it was not a surprise in the light of recent developments. He underlined that tensions will increase significantly if the two sides continue to struggle with each other in this way, and referred to the case to close down the AKP, and the subsequent Ergenekon operation. Regarding the connection between the case and operation, Mr. Lagendjik stated, “I do not know if there was an actual connection between them or if one is a retaliatory move against the other; however, this is how it is perceived from the outside”. Mr. Lagendjik also stated that the recent developments and increased tension in Turkey would affect the EU process and reforms and proceeded to state that “the worst danger is turning 2008 into a lost year like 2007. This is the most significant potential danger of the struggle”. (Milliyet)

CHENEY INSISTED ON MEETING WITH BUYUKANIT
24 March
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is currently in Ankara, the last destination of his 10-day trip. His agenda includes Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. Mr. Cheney will meet President Abdullah Gül, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Turkish Chief of Staff General Yaşar Büyükanit. Mr. Cheney insisted on a meeting with Mr. Büyükanit as a result of his remarks opposing sending more soldiers to Afghanistan. Mr. Cheney will call for stronger cooperation in the struggle against the PKK, and encourage dialogue after visiting Massoud Barzani, leader of the Regional Kurdish Administration in Northern Iraq. According to diplomatic sources, the main aim of the visit is Iran. The Bush administration allegedly wants Turkey to deal with Iran in a harsher way and to approve the steps taken as countermeasure against Iran “without criticism”. Ankara, insisting on a dialogue with Iran, sent a message to Iranian President Ahmadinejad, who wanted to visit Turkey this month, explaining that due to the diplomatic traffic the proposed visit must be suspended until April. (Radikal)

TURKMEN LEADER GURBANGULY BERDYMUKHAMEDOV TO DISCUSS NABUCCO PIPELINE IN TURKEY
24 March

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

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The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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