The Turkey Analyst

26 March 2008

ANALYSIS
Challenging Times for Turkey's Democracy
Turkey’s regime crisis has reached an unprecedented, dangerous level. If not checked, it could threaten recent advances in Turkish democracy. The Turkish state shows signs of breaking up into confrontation along ideological lines. Turkey is adrift, putting extra strain on the country’s partners, the European Union and the United States. They need  to reexamine their assumptions about the character of the Turkish crisis and its protagonists, and draw policy conclusions that will serve theirs and Turkey’s interests in the long term.

Foreign Policy Implications of Turkey's Crisis
In the past month, Turkey experienced high levels of internal and external turmoil. Turkey launched a large military operation in northern Iraq, which created acrimony as the subsequent pullout was questioned by the opposition. Meanwhile, the country’s internal turmoil deepened. This internal crisis is making the conduct of a coherent foreign policy increasingly difficult, with serious implications for its ability to play a role as a regional power.


NEWS DIGEST: THE FORTNIGHT IN REVIEW
I. Domestic Politics
The domestic scene was dominated by the continuing controversy over the constitutional amendment to abolish the Islamic headscarf in universities. While President Gül signed the amendment into law, the opposition applied to the constitutional court for its anullment. The pro-AKP head of the Higher Education Council said the Islamic headscarf can now be worn in universities; but the influential industrialists' union said the episode had hurt Turkey's stability. Meanwhile, the traditional alignment between the nationalist parties and the military was weakened by an unexpected row over the reasons for the withdrawal from Iraq, which nationalists claimed had been forced by the US. Click here for full digest.

II. Foreign Relations
Aside from the military operation in Iraq, foreign relations were dominated by energy politics, specifically the Nabucco pipeline and a potential Russian role in it. In other news, steps toward a parliamentary assembly of Turkic states moved forward, while Turkey professed strong support for Albania’s NATO membership. Signals on the Middle East were balanced, with Ankara criticizing Iran’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but Erdogan calling events in Gaza unacceptable. Ankara also declined to participate in the EU Chad operation. Click here for full digest.

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are unsigned, being the consensus view of the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses, which are normally solicited.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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