Turkey Analyst, 12 March 2008

NEWS DIGEST, February 19-March 9, 2008

SECTION I: FOREIGN RELATIONS

Summary: Aside from the military operation in Iraq, foreign relations were dominated by energy politics, specifically the Nabucco pipeline and a potential Russian role in it. In other news, steps toward a parliamentary assembly of Turkic states moved forward, while Turkey professed strong support for Albania’s NATO membership. Signals on the Middle East were balanced, with Ankara criticizing Iran’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but Erdogan calling events in Gaza unacceptable. Ankara also declined to participate in the EU Chad operation.

DISCUSSIONS ON TRANS-CASPIAN PIPELINE
19 February
Turkey’s ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mr. Avni Karslioglu, stated that Turkey plans to discuss the construction of a Trans-Caspian pipeline with Turkmenistan. The two countries will discuss the pipeline during the upcoming visit of Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov to Turkey in March. (Turkish Daily News)

TURKEY OPEN TO RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION IN THE NABUCCO PROJECT
February 21
Turkey is open to Russia's participation in the multi-national Nabucco Pipeline project. Ankara's willingness to engage Russia was discussed in Moscow last week, during a meeting between Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and his counterpart Sergei Lavrov with Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko.
It is still uncertain whether the Nabucco project will find sufficient gas resources to make the project worthwhile. Russia signed a deal in December with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan agreeing on the flow of their Caspian Sea gas supplies through Russia, draining a main potential source of gas for Nabucco. Mr. Lavrov recently stated that the Nabucco project might not be realized due to a shortage of gas supply. In Moscow, Mr. Babacan told Russian officials that Turkey wanted to diversify the suppliers of Nabucco and considered Russia to be a reliable supplier.  However, it is emphasized that Turkey's openness to Russian involvement in Nabucco does not mean filling the pipeline exclusively with Russian gas. The details of the Turkish-Russian negotiations over the Nabucco project are expected to take shape during the Joint Economic Commission meeting this year. Russia's Hristenko and Turkey's Energy Minister Hilmi Güler will chair the commission. (Turkish Daily News)

PUTIN DID NOT RECEIVE BABACAN
22 February
Sources state that Turkish Foreign Minister Babacan was declined an appointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin despite his request two days prior to his visit to Russia. Sources from the Foreign Ministry claimed that Mr. Putin was occupied with internal affairs due to the upcoming election, and added that he did not receive foreign visitors. The Foreign Ministry did not confirm the claim that Mr. Putin’s decision was based on Turkey’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Mr. Babacan discussed the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline project, the construction of a liquid natural gas (LNG) complex in Ceyhan, underground gas storage and the building of nuclear power plants during his visit. During Mr. Babacan’s meeting with his counterpart Mr. Lavrov, a Russian inclusion in the Nabucco project, which aims to break the Russian monopoly over gas supplies to Europe, was proposed. Mr. Lavrov replied, “We will evaluate, then answer”. (Vatan)

TURKEY PROTESTS VIOLENT ATTACK ON ITS BELGRADE EMBASSY
23 February
Turkey has strongly denounced Thursday's attacks on the Turkish Embassy in Belgrade, where protestors burnt the Turkish flag. “We have asked them to heighten security measures," said Turkish diplomatic sources. Serbian rioters, enraged by Kosovo's cession from Serbia, stoned the Turkish Embassy in a demonstration of protest against Ankara's recognition of an independent Kosovo. According to diplomatic sources, Turkish Foreign Ministry officials contacted the Serbian chargé d'affaires in Ankara and Serbian Foreign Ministry officials immediately called for heightened security measures for the protection of diplomats.  Serbian Ambassador to Ankara, Vladimir Curgus, left Turkey in protest on Thursday as he was summoned to Belgrade for political consultations. Serbia expected Turkey to revise its decision on the recognition of Kosovo, he said, adding that bilateral relations will no longer be the same. (Turkish Daily News)

TURKIC-SPEAKING COUNTRIES SIGNED PROTOCOL
26 February
The first meeting of the inter-parliamentarian council of Turkic-speaking countries was held in Turkey last week. Parliament speakers from four Turkic-speaking countries, namely Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan signed a protocol of intention to establish a "Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic-Speaking Countries." (Turkish Daily News)

TURKEY SUPPORTS ALBANIA’S NATO BID
27 February
Yesterday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan gave strong support to Albania's bid for joining NATO. At a joint press conference following a meeting with his visiting Albanian counterpart Lulzim Basha, Mr. Babacan said, “Turkey will strongly support the two candidate countries Macedonia and Croatia as well as Albania for being invited for membership in the April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest”. Mr. Basha stated that Turkey is becoming a global actor. “Turkey's support for not only Albania, but also for Macedonia and Croatia's membership in NATO, signals that Ankara is an actor that attaches importance to peace and stability in the Balkans, in the region and in the broader area,” he said.  Turkey welcomes Albania's role in the region's path to the European Union, Mr. Babacan said. He added that Turkey was working together with Albania in regional mechanisms, including the cooperation process with Southeast European countries and the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). Kosovo's independence is a new chance for Serbia, and a peaceful solution to the Kosovo problem offers an opportunity for European Union membership, said Mr. Basha. He emphasized that the recognition of Kosovo's independence was an important step for the Balkans' European integration and for the maintenance of peace and stability in the region. (Turkish Daily News)

GAZ DE FRANCE SAYS NO IN TALKS WITH GAZPROM ON SOUTH STREAM
28 February
Gaz de France SA, the owner of Europe's largest natural-gas network, is still interested in joining the Nabucco pipeline project and is not engaged in talks with Russia's Gazprom concerning the rival South Stream gas link. Gaz de France has thus far been excluded from participating in the planned Nabucco project for “political considerations”. According to Chief Executive Officer Jean- François Cirelli, “If the consortium decides it wants the biggest gas company in Europe, we will go with them.”
Gaz de France faced opposition in Turkey as a result of a bill passed by the French lower house in 2006. The bill declared it a crime to deny that genocide was carried out against Armenians in 1915, in present-day Turkey.
Turkey's state pipeline operator BOTAS stated that Nabucco, the 5-billion-euro gas pipeline project in which it is a partner, does not need a seventh company to join the venture. BOTAS Chief Executive, Saltuk Düzyol, assumed that accepting German RWE as the sixth partner makes Nabucco “crowded enough”. Nonetheless, Mr. Düzyol did not exclude eventually admitting a seventh partner. (Turkish Daily News)

IRAN RESPONDS TO ANKARA’S REACTION TO ITS ISRAEL POLICY
29 February
Following the harsh words of Iranian President Ahmadinejad on Israel, Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Levent Bilman released a written statement saying that “Turkey believes that in the troubled and crisis-ridden Middle East region, the establishment of an environment of dialogue and mutual understanding carries vital importance in the quest for stability and peace in the region. Within this context, certain unconstructive remarks of Iranian authorities concerning Israel in recent days are regrettable”. Mr. Bilman's Iranian counterpart, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini, remarked at a press conference on Wednesday, "If the news broadcasted in that respect is reliable, it is quite surprising. That is because defending the legitimate rights of the oppressed Palestinian nation, including their right to resist against the occupiers of their motherland by the Zionist regime, are the fixed and basic policy of all of the members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the Arab countries and high-ranking Turkish officials." (Today’s Zaman)

ERDOGAN: THINGS HAPPENING IN GAZA ARE UNACCEPTABLE
3 March
Prime Minister Erdogan spoke to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert about the current situation in Gaza. Mr. Erdogan stressed the need for the peace process to resume as soon as possible. Mr. Abbas asked Mr. Erdogan for Turkish assistance and support. In his discussion with Mr. Olmert, Mr. Erdogan stated that the events taking place in Gaza were unacceptable and repeated the need for the immediate resumption of the peace process. Mr. Olmert notified Mr. Erdogan about the latest developments and appealed for support, which led to an agreement on the logistics of humanitarian aid from Turkey to the Palestinian people in Gaza. Mr. Erdogan will continue to work for peace in accordance with the requests of Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas. (Anka News Agency)

PRESIDENT GÜL CONGRATULATES MEDVEDEV
4 March
President Abdullah Gül sent a congratulatory message to Dmitry Medvedev on his victory in the Russian presidential election. "I am pleased with the level of bilateral relations and cooperation between Turkey and Russia. I would like to reiterate that we are determined to boost the relationship with Russia." Mr. Gül said in his letter. President Gül said that firm solidarity between the two countries contributed to peace and stability in Eurasia. (ANKA News Agency)

BABACAN: WE NEED TO UNITE
5 March
In a press conference organized at Ankara’s Esenboga airport before his departure to the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of NATO countries, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Babacan stated that Turkey is in a severe struggle against terrorism. Mr. Babacan emphasized that the government, opposition and all institutions must unite in this struggle. Mr. Babacan addressed the decision of the Northern Iraqi regional administration to close down the Turkish bases in the region, by stating that the Turkish stance was well known and added that no change is possible in this issue. (Anatolian News Agency)

US’S BRYZA: “TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN SHOULD AGREE ON NABUCCO”
5 March
U.S Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza said yesterday that Turkey and Azerbaijan must reach an agreement for the Nabucco pipeline project. Mr. Bryza's statement came after a meeting in the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry. In an interview with Azerbaijan's Radio Liberty, Mr. Bryza said that the source of the problem was commercial. (Turkish Daily News)

ANKARA REJECTED THE TROOPS REQUEST OF EU
7 March
Ankara rejected an EU troop request for EUFOR Chad/Car, which will be located in Chad and the Central African Republic in order to sustain the peace. According to some sources, Ankara took this decision because the consultation mechanism, envisaged in the Treaty of Nice, did not function properly. Additionally, a significant factor for Ankara's decision is the role played by France in EUFOR Chad. (ANKA News Agency)

ANKARA PUSHES SARKOZY FOR NEW STATEMENT ON MEDITERRANEAN UNION
8 March
Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said that France has assured Ankara that a union of Mediterranean countries does not pose a threat or alternative to Turkey's European Union membership. However, Mr. Babacan said that Turkey has yet to be convinced to participate in the project, which was initially presented as an alternative to Turkey's EU membership by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Speaking at a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels Thursday, Mr. Babacan said, “Although the French bureaucracy informed us that this union project has nothing to do with our EU aspirations, Mr. Sarkozy's contrary statements are still on record.” Mr. Babacan said that Turkey has not yet decided to accept France's invitation to a summit of the Union for the Mediterranean in July. “We have not closed any doors but first we need to receive a strong political guarantee from France that will prove that there is no link to EU membership. This commitment must be declared at the highest political level,” said Mr. Babacan, pointing to Turkey's expectations for a new statement by Sarkozy. (Turkish Daily News)

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are unsigned, being the consensus view of the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses, which are normally solicited.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center was created in 2005 through the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

To Subscribe:
To subscribe to the Turkey Analyst email announcements, please contact Martina Klimesova with an email containing "subscribe Turkey Analyst" in the subject line.