The Turkey Analyst

12 March 2008

ANALYSIS
Erdogan's Towering Role in the AKP
Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) dominates the country’s political landscape, but few Western analysts have looked closer at the evolution of its leadership structures. A closer analysis nevertheless shows that it has changed significantly, from a collegial leadership team to ever-growing power being transferred to Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s personality. At present, Erdogan appears to rule the party in a rather authoritarian fashion, discouraging advice outside the inner circle and the exchange of opinions.

NEWS DIGEST
I. Domestic Politics
The domestic scene was dominated by the continuing controversy over the constitutional amendment to abolish the Islamic headscarf in universities. While President Gül signed the amendment into law, the opposition applied to the constitutional court for its anullment. The pro-AKP head of the Higher Education Council said the Islamic headscarf can now be worn in universities; but the influential industrialists' union said the episode had hurt Turkey's stability. Meanwhile, the traditional alignment between the nationalist parties and the military was weakened by an unexpected row over the reasons for the withdrawal from Iraq, which nationalists claimed had been forced by the US. Click here for full digest.

II. Foreign Relations
Aside from the military operation in Iraq, foreign relations were dominated by energy politics, specifically the Nabucco pipeline and a potential Russian role in it. In other news, steps toward a parliamentary assembly of Turkic states moved forward, while Turkey professed strong support for Albania’s NATO membership. Signals on the Middle East were balanced, with Ankara criticizing Iran’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but Erdogan calling events in Gaza unacceptable. Ankara also declined to participate in the EU Chad operation. Click here for full digest.

III. Iraq
Turkish forces conducted the largest military operation on Iraqi soil against the PKK in a decade. Coming before the end of winter, the 8-day land and air attack was designed to take the PKK by surprise and pre-empt the expected PKK spring offensive. While claimed a success, the end of the operation generated acrimony. While the Government and the army defended the operation and argued it ended by their own decision, the opposition CHP and MHP both argued it had been ended prematurely and due to American pressure. Click here for full digest.

The Turkey Analyst
The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed to bring authoritative analysis and news on the rapidly developing domestic and foreign policy issues in Turkey. It is published weekly, and includes a topical analysis, as well as translations and summaries of selected Turkish news reports. It is edited and compiled under the supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya.

The analyses appearing in the Turkey Analyst are unsigned, being the consensus view of the three Editors. The Turkey Analyst occasionally publishes signed guest analyses, which are normally solicited.

The Joint Center
The Joint Center, created in 2005, is the product of the merger of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, and the Silk Road Studies Program, at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Turkey Initiative
The Joint Center launched a Turkey Initiative in 2006 in order to improve understand of Turkish domestic and foreign affairs in Europe and the United States.

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