Kazakhstan: The Road to Independence Energy Policy and the Birth of a Nation By Ariel Cohen   © 2008 Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036; Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, SE-13130 Stockholm, Sweden. www.silkroadstudies.org

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Table of Contents

Table of Abbreviations ...................................................................... 7

Acknowledgements............................................................................ 9

Introduction .................................................................................... 11

Part One: Seventeen Years Of Sovereign State Building ...................... 15

Challenges on the Road to Independence ...........................................17
The Logic of Political Reforms ........................................................... 35
Investing in Development ................................................................ 64
Roadmap for Kazakhstan ................................................................. 83

Part Two: The Energy Policy Of Independent Kazakhstan.................... 113

Kazakhstan’s Energy Strategy ......................................................... 115
Energy Transportation: Pipeline Policy .............................................. 129
Major Onshore and Offshore Oil Projects ........................................... 147
Major Gas Projects ......................................................................... 163
Electricity .......................................................................................182
The Coal Industry .......................................................................... 186
Uranium Mining and Nuclear Fuel Cooperation .................................. 190

Part Three: The Future Of Kazakhstan – A New Eurasian Tiger? ......... 199

Kazakhstan’s 2010 OSCE Chairmanship .......................................... 201
Kazakhstan as a Model for Interethnic Relations ............................... 208
National Development Policy .......................................................... 214
Kazakhstan’s Economic Outlook ...................................................... 225
The Future of Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector ....................................... 241
The Future of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy ........................................249
Development Model for Kazakhstan .................................................273

Conclusions ...................................................................................278

About the Author ............................................................................281