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CACI Forum

Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

"The Chechen Insurgency after Aslan Maskhadov"

March 23, 2005

Ilyas Akhmadov, a former Chechen official who fought in the war of 1994-96, said Wednesday that the death of Aslan Makhadov could make hopes for a peaceful settlement in Chechnya even grimmer.

"The death of Maskhadov is certainly going to change the picture of the war because this was the person who could provide a political solution in what would be a very small political field," Akhmadov said. "I think the death of Maskhadov shows there's nobody we can negotiate with in the Kremlin."

Akhmadov spoke in Russian and had an interpreter.

Akhmadov served mostly on Maskhadov's staff during the first Chechen war after the Soviet Union 's collapse. In the summer of 1999, Maskhadov named Akhmadov foreign minister of Chechnya .

A few months after the second war started, Akhmadov came to the West to make Chechnya 's case, gaining political asylum in the United States . He is now a visiting fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy. Russia has vehemently protested his asylum in the United States , calling him a terrorist. Akhmadov was the subject of a profile in the Washington Post Magazine on March 20.

Maskhadov, a rebel leader and former elected president of secessionist Chechnya , was killed on March 8 in Tolstoy-Yurt, north of the Chechen capital of Grozny . The exact circumstances of his death are unclear; some reports said Russian forces killed him, while others claimed one of Maskhadov's bodyguards inadvertently shot and killed him.

Akhmadov said he was skeptical of reports that Maskhadov was killed by a grenade while hiding inside a bunker. The bunker was an ordinary cellar, and a grenade would have destroyed the structure and left Maskhadov's body in much worse condition than television footage showed, he said.

Akhmadov suggested that Maskhadov took his own life after being surrounded by Russian forces.

"The fact remains that President Maskhadov did not allow himself to be taken alive," he said. "He left the world like a soldier does, and in that manner preserved his own and our honor."

Akhmadov said Russian forces were disrespectful in their treatment of Maskhadov's corpse, but he said that was typical of Russian military behavior dating back to the 19 th century.

"It is of course a tragedy, a tragedy for the Chechen people," Akhmadov said. But he noted that in August 1996, just a few months after Chechen rebel leader Dzhokar Dudayev was killed, the Chechen rebels recaptured Grozny and forced the Russian authorities to sign a ceasefire.

Akhmadov said it had been nearly two years since he had spoken with Maskhadov by phone. Maskhadov had indicated to him, in messages conveyed by audiocassette, that he knew he could die any time and that he had chosen a successor.

Akhmadov said he did not know the man Maskhadov chose, Abdul-Khalim Sadulaev, but he said Sadulaev's early statements indicated he would continue Maskhadov's support for achieving a negotiated settlement.

When Akhmadov was asked, however, if he thought there was any chance that the Russian authorities would respond favorably to a totally peaceful Chechen movement, his answer was, " Absolyutno nyet " (Absolutely not).

"I think, from my own sour experience, there is absolutely no chance," he said. He said the Kremlin needs dead Chechens and "anybody working on the side of peace does not fit into the Kremlin." This strategy, Akhmadov said, will kill not only the chances for peace in Chechnya , but any prospect for democratic society in Russia .

Noting that around 60 percent of Russia 's top officials once served in the KGB, Akhmadov said the Russian government has pursued an incompetent anti-terror strategy and has failed to protect its citizens.

Another member of the audience then asked Akhmadov whether he would condemn two terrorist attacks in particular: the seizing of the Dubrovka theater in Moscow in October 2002 and the attack on the school in Beslan last September.

"Yes, of course, I have done it 10,000 times, especially Dubrokva," Akhmadov answered, in English.

Akhmadov is a former associate of Shamil Basayev, the Chechen rebel leader who in an Internet posting claimed responsibility for the Belsan attack. Akhmadov said Basayev had changed from a Chechen nationalist into a radical Islamist whose tactics Akhmadov does not support.

Akhmadov noted that Maskhadov had supported the creation of an international criminal court for Chechnya and was willing to turn Basayev over to such a court. But Akhmadov said the international community's "shameful distancing" from the war in Chechnya and willingness to believe Russian propaganda "has left us in a closed arena."

Akhmadov has criticized Basayev for the Beslan attack, saying it played into Russian President Vladimir Putin's hands. But the death of Maskhadov, for which the Russian government paid a reward of $10 million and which Putin praised, could strengthen the hand of radical Chechens who oppose negotiations with the Kremlin, Akhmadov said.

Akhmadov said it was difficult to predict what Chechnya would look like five years from now, though he said he was absolutely certain that if his grandchildren want to travel from Grozny to Moscow , they will have to cross through "several sovereign countries."

A member of the audience asked Akhmadov about the phenomenon of female Chechen suicide bombers.

Akhmadov said that in Chechen culture, suicide has long been considered an aberration and a great sin. People who committed suicide were not buried in cemeteries, he said.

The first Chechen war began as one Soviet people fighting another Soviet people, with many on either side having previously served in the Soviet Red Army. That war was fought in an essentially classical manner with defined battle lines, he said, and the tactic of suicide bombing was not used.

Akhmadov speculated that some women have been so humiliated by the experience of rape at the hands of Russian soldiers during the war that they have been willing to try to restore their honor through suicide attacks. But he said Chechnya has no "industry" of suicide bombers and no "brainwashing" to encourage women to carry out such attacks.

Finally, Akhmadov said he has great respect for anyone in Russia who seeks a peaceful solution to the war in Chechnya , including the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia. But he said he was very skeptical of that group's ability to have an impact.

Timothy Thomas, a civilian expert on the Chechen war for the Department of Defense's Foreign Military Studies Office in Leavenworth , Kansas , also spoke, but his remarks were off the record. He can be reached by e-mail at thomast@leavenworth.army.mil .

Forum report by Brian Carlson