Valuable lessons on sharing political power with Islamist parties can be drawn from the experience of Tajikistan , Dr. Pulat Shozimov said at the March 2 CACI Forum.

Shozimov, Professor of Social Philosophy and a Senior Fellow at the Department of Social Philosophy at the Institute of Philosophy and Law at the Tajik Academy of Sciences, is currently a Fulbright Scholar at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

He spoke three days after Tajikistan held parliamentary elections in which President Emomali Rakhmonov's National Democratic Party won about 80 percent of the vote.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the elections were rife with manipulation and did not meet international standards, but Shozimov and S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Central-Asia Caucasus Institute, agreed that the elections nevertheless represented a step forward for the country.

"I agree that this is progress, if you compare it with the previous," Shozimov said.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan suffered through a civil war from 1992-97 between pro-government forces and an Islamic opposition in which 100,000 people were killed.

Shozimov spoke of the "secular-religious compromise" reached at the end of the civil war that allowed the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) to participate in elections.

Before this compromise was reached, Articles 1 and 8 of the Tajik constitution stated that Tajikistan was a pluralist, democratic state and that religious organizations were separate and could not interfere in government affairs. In 1998, a different article of the constitution, Article 28, was changed to allow religious parties to participate in elections.

In 2000, during the first elections after the civil war, the IRP won about 7.3 percent of the vote and captured two seats in the Tajik parliament.

In Sunday's elections, initial results showed the IRP receiving about 10 percent of the votes, according to the Associated Press. Some areas of the country had yet to report results.

Shozimov said that as a result of the secular-religious compromise, political parties have changed through their interaction with each other. Religious elements have become more secular, secular elements more religious, he said.

The government has sought support from the IRP in controlling more radical Islamist movements such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizbut-Tahrir. The IRP has distanced itself from these groups and renounced the goal of creating an Islamic state. Instead, it has sought to create a new ideology for the Tajik state, combining a national and religious agenda.

Meanwhile, the government has made a stronger appeal to traditional Islamic sentiments. For example, Tajikistan now has two official religious holidays and shows extensive religious programming on TV, Shozimov said. The government emphasizes both the traditions of Zoroastrianism and traditional Muslim themes of piety.

"I think this model has a future," Shozimov said. But the compromise could be fragile if the IRP's electoral fortunes fade, he said. In that case, the party would probably rethink its agenda.

If the IRP receives a lower percentage of the vote than it has been receiving, the radical wing of the party could gain strength, he said. Then the IRP would face a difficult choice. If it moved in the direction of pro-government parties, it would lose supporters holding traditional Islamic sentiments. But if it made greater appeals to fundamentalism, the government could attack it as too radical.

Asked if IRP would ever turn to violence, Shozimov said he doubted it. The party has had important successes in society at the grassroots level that haven't necessarily shown up in election results, he said. Furthermore, the party has gained valuable political experience in recent years and wants to remain engaged in political dialogue.

But Shozimov said the government was unlikely to have success co-opting more radical groups such as Hizbut-Tahrir. If members of those groups reached an understanding with the government, they would be compromising the radical agendas that define them.

Starr asked Shozimov if the governing party's successful co-optation of traditional Islamic sentiments - the very theme upon which IRP was founded - was the result of successful political manipulation, political fatigue, or the sense that divisions in society must be avoided now.

Shozimov said that the country still suffers from the agony of the civil war and is therefore more eager to strike compromises. Furthermore, with a population that is overwhelmingly Muslim, the government must be sensitive to religious concerns. At the same time, Shozimov said, the country's religious feelings are mostly manifested as cultural identity rather than devout religious practice.

Since Sunday's election, Tajik President Rakhmonov has spoken of the danger of forcing democracy on a fractious society like Tajikistan 's, while the IRP has criticized the government for stifling the will of the people. But overall, Shozimov said, Tajikistan 's secular-religious compromise has had important successes.

"The experience of Tajikistan is very good," he said, though he added, "the experience in Turkey is much better."

By Brian Carlson