The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, invites you to:

“What’s at stake at the Manas Airbase?”

Featuring

Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, Strategic Studies Institute, National War College.

Comments by Dr. Evan A. Feigenbaum, The Council on Foreign Relations, until recently Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs,  Department of State.

Monday, 23 February, 2009
5-7 PM

Event Summary

The Central Asia Caucasus Institute (CACI) at SAIS hosted a forum on Monday, February 23, 2009. The forum featured Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, Strategic Studies Institute, National War College, and Dr. Evan A. Feigenbaum, the Council on Foreign Relations, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Department of State. Professor S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Institute, introduced the forum’s speakers to the audience.

On February 19, the Parliament of the Kyrgyz Republic voted overwhelmingly in favor of President Bakiyev’s decision to oust the United States from the Manas Airbase. This CACI forum aimed to contextualize this event and identify the factors traceable to Russia, the United States, and the Kyrgyz Republic in explaining this outcome.

Dr. Blank began by noting how the eviction has been preceded by a reassertion of Russian influence in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2005, and how massive amounts of Russian capital have been pouring into the country.  The eviction from Manas should thus be seen in context of Moscow’s “role as an intermediary” for Kyrgyz-U.S. relations and Russia’s reluctance in recognizing the CIS states as sovereign entities. To retain the Kyrgyz republic within its sphere of influence, Russia has used a variety of carrots and sticks – from the recent cyber-attacks against the country to bribing of the Kyrgyz government.

According to Dr. Blank, the United States was completely “blind sided” by these events and has not been able to counter Russia’s reassertion of influence in the region. This is partly an issue of money but also attention. In contrast to Russia, which is able to make frequent heads of state visits and invest both Presidential and Vice-Presidential time in the region, the United States has not been able to accord the region similar attention.

Dr. Blank concluded his presentation by noting how the Bush administration has failed to prioritize Central Asia and how Russia, as a result, has been given the upper hand. The eviction from the Karshi-Khanabad Airbase in Uzbekistan in 2005 is a further example of how “we lost the ball”. 

Dr. Evan Feigenbaum confirmed that Central Asia not has been a priority during the Bush Administration and that this region suffers from underfunding. But he also noted how the U.S.-Kyrgyz tensions have been building up ever since the Tulip Revolution of 2005 and that the recent events should be seen in context of this. Indeed, they follow “two or three previous near death experiences” where the Kyrgyz government has threatened to terminate the base lease. According to Dr. Feigenbaum, “some government circles” express deep distrust of U.S. intentions while Russia “has been no friend of this base” from the beginning.

Dr. Feigenbaum concluded by noting how the loss for the Kyrgyz Republic with the termination of the base agreement may be even greater than for the United States since the U.S. provided “options to the Kyrgyz Republic” and a further “balance” in its foreign policy. Finally, Dr. Starr stressed the importance of looking at this issue from the Kyrgyz perspective and how the expulsion from Manas relates to domestic politics and the upcoming presidential election.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute is the primary institution in the United States for the study of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Caspian Region. The Institute, affiliated with Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, forms part of a Joint Center with the Silk Road Studies Program, affiliated with the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. Additional information about the Joint Center, as well as its several publications series, is available at www.silkroadstudies.org