The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University, invites you to:

“Kazakhstan in Its Neighborhood”

With Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director, Program Management
Hudson Institute, Washington, D. C.

Audio of event available by clicking HERE.

Event Summary:

1991 was a novel era in international relations, as newly independent states of the former Soviet Union sought to establish their viability as autonomous nations while maintaining the benefits and advantages of their prior association. To check Russian influence, they reached out not only to other global powers such as the United States, the European Union and China, but also to each other. In this latter effort, and in consequence of its size, energy wealth, relative economic stability and skillful diplomacy, Kazakhstan emerged as a natural leader. A key feature of Kazakhstan's leadership, parallel to its multi-vector diplomacy, is its pursuit of multi-vector integration in such dimensions as water, energy, regional transport, communications, customs, anti-terrorism and security issues. Despite this primacy among Central Asian nations, Kazakhstan remains remarkably unburdened by the political and diplomatic challenges faced by regional powers such as Russia and China. Though many of its ambitions, such as a union of Central Asian states, have not been realized, its 2010 assumption as chair of the OSCE may provide it with expanded opportunities in that regard.

A number of key international institutions involve Kazakhstan as both a partner and a participant. The Commonwealth of Independent States, formed during the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, has lost much of its political utility and potency, doing little to organize or enforce any meaningful cooperation among its member states, but may maintain a continued diplomatic and symbolic presence for by dint of its very impotence. On the contrary, the Collective Security Treaty Organization signifies a more disciplined effort, and has made substantial progress in counterterrorism and counter narcotics trafficking, initiatives in Afghanistan, and military cooperation; but it remains, from Kazakhstan's perspective, largely under control of Moscow. The Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), an initiative of President Nazarbayev, can be understood as a multi-speed organization, with Russia, Kazakhstan and perhaps Belarus leading its development as a customs union.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is distinguished in the participation of China as an influence countervailing that of Russia; historically the SCO has focused on counterterrorism and arms control efforts, but Kazakhstan is working to develop the organization's cultural, educational and humanitarian dimensions. Some speculation persists regarding the SCO's potential facilitation of an energy club; though the SCO membership includes many of the region's leading energy producers and consumers, conflicts remain over issues matters of pricing and supply. Many SCO member states, Dr. Weitz proposed, have anti-Western, anti-American tendencies which Kazakhstan typically moderates; furthermore, its unique status as an intermediate-power may disincline Kazakhstan to support SCO membership for similar nations like Iran and India.

NATO has become increasingly involved in the region: first, in consequence of its expansion during the 1990's through Partnership for Peace, Individual Partnership Action Plans and other initiatives; and second, specifically with Kazakhstan as its relationship with Uzbekistan deteriorated. The European Union has been involved in energy negotiations with Kazakhstan, occasionally in tension with Russian interests; countries such as Germany have substantial commercial interests in Kazakhstan; in principle, the EU supports improved links with Central Asia, but in practice its influence has been limited, first by a failure to commit resources in its efforts, and second by its continued deference to Russia. Finally, The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) plays a comprehensive role, not only as a security institution, but with economic, political and humanitarian issues. Kazakhstan has endorsed a number of criticisms of perceived double standards in the OSCE's electoral monitoring and expressed concerns of inattentiveness to economic development and terrorism issues; the OSCE, conversely, has offered Kazakhstan its chair in 2010, despite concerns that it may be diplomatically unwilling to be sufficiently critical of regional humanitarian issues.

Perhaps as a legacy of its role in the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan continues to approach security in global rather than strictly regional terms, taking a lead in antiterrorism and  nonproliferation initiatives and partnering with Russia to provide nuclear fuel to countries such as Iran which lack a functional nuclear energy program. Concerned with establishing a stable investment climate and in pursuit of trade opportunities with Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan's focus has shifted from self-defense to a more active role in international security, contributing a small peacekeeping contingent to Iraq, collaborating on Caspian Sea security issues, and initiating the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia.

Economically, Kazakhstan maintains a similarly collaborative approach, working to enhance regional prosperity by opening new markets and increased export opportunities. This approach is perhaps most evident in their efforts to diversify energy pipelines and suppliers. As it begins to attract regional labor flows, Kazakhstan is navigating increasingly substantial migration issues, principally through the CIS framework; as it attracts increased regional investment, Kazakhstan has developed communication and financial centers and an improved air travel infrastructure.

In pursuit of its own national interests, Dr. Weitz concluded, Kazakhstan has contributed to a variety of positive developments in Central Asia; though lacking the power to establish regional stability and integration on its own, it has been able to push from the margins in collaboration with other nations. Continuing democratization, the influence of Islamic extremism, and matters of nuclear proliferation are all unsettled questions faced by the region. International developments in Iran and particularly Afghanistan, the eventual retirement of President Nazarbayev, all threaten local stability. Kazakhstan must anticipate, on one hand, the prospect of an economic downturn given the insufficient development of national resources; and on the other, the possibility that relative economic success may undermine the cooperative and benign diplomatic stance that has contributed to its effectiveness on the international stage.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute is a leading center conducting fundamental and applied research on an important world region. It has offices at SAIS (Johns Hopkins University), Washington, and in Stockholm, Sweden, through a Joint Center with the Silk Road Studies Program (Institute for Security and Development Policy). This Joint Center publishes the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst (cacianalyst.org), the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, and the Silk Road Papers as well as books and monographs. Additional information about the Joint Center is available at www.silkroadstudies.org .