Panelists:
Mr. Rifat Hisarciklioglu, President, Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey

Dr. Mamuka Tsereteli, Executive Director, America - Georgia Business Council; Professor, American University

Dr. Adil Baguirov, Post-doctorate Fellow, Moscow State University School of International Relations; a frequent speaker and writer on Caspian and Caucasus related topics

Representative of Armenia (TBA)

Wednesday, October 31, 2007
5-7 PM
The Rome Auditorium, Rome Building
1619 Massachusetts  Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036

In 1998, the French National Assembly passed a resolution calling the 1915-17 mass killings of Armenians “genocide”.  Russia, Canada, and Greece have likewise named it so.  In 2006, the French Parliament made it a crime for anyone to deny “the Armenian genocide”.  What lies behind passing such resolutions?   Earlier this month in the U.S., the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution on “Armenian Genocide.” What is the resonance of these resolutions?  Our panelists discussed their potential implications.  Dr. S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Institute, moderated the Forum meeting.

Forum Summary

A discussion hosted by the Central Asia Caucasus Institute (CACI) at SAIS on Wednesday, October 31, 2007, in Rome Auditorium.

The event featured Mr. Alex van Oss, Radio Journalist and Chair of Caucasus Studies at the Foreign Service Institute, Dr. Mamuka Tsereteli, Executive Director of the America-Georgia Business Council and Professor at American University, and Dr. Adil Baguirov, post-doctorate fellow at the Moscow State University School of International Relations.

Prof. S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Institute, introduced the three gentlemen to the audience, asking them to go beyond the politics of the Armenian resolutions and elaborate on their specific impact on the Caucasus and related regions. Prof. Starr noted that although CACI had tried to invite official representatives from both Armenia and Turkey to participate in today’s event, the invitations were declined.

Mr. van Oss began his presentation by recounting some recent experiences to illustrate his point that genocide is far more than a political or legal question and encompasses a host of spiritual and psychological dimensions. When talking about the events of the early 20th century, Mr. van Oss advised both Turks and Armenians to try considering the point of view of the other side. In this regard, he noted that history has to be seen as evolving and not static.

Mr. van Oss went on to discuss the pain body in humans, which prevents people from engaging in reconciliation. He called upon the peoples of Turkey and Armenia to accept and honor each other’s suffering and pain as a prerequisite for eventual reconciliation.

At this point, Prof. Starr asked Mr. van Oss about the implications of this process for the Caucasus. The latter responded by giving the example of how an Armenian church was rebuilt in Turkey. If the process of healing can be bolstered by saving or reconstructing art, this may contribute to change the overall context of discussion, moving it away from the specifics. Also, Mr. van Oss urged Azeris and Georgians to play a facilitating role in overcoming the conflict.

Dr. Tsereteli, regretting the absence of Turkish and Armenian officials at the talk, briefly summarized the demographics of the Caucasus. The region’s 15 million people, live in Azerbaijan (about 8 million), Georgia (about 4.5 million) and Armenia (about 3 million). He reminded the audience of the rapid economic development, which has created a huge dynamic over recent years. In this regard, a broader cooperation with neighboring states would produce even more synergies and better results.

Geopolitics also play an important role in the region. While Georgia has its eyes firmly set on swift integration with the West, including NATO membership, Dr. Tsereteil attributes similar aspirations to Azerbaijan, albeit over a much longer time horizon. Armenia, a close ally of Russia, has been much slower to open itself up to the West. According to Dr. Tsereteli, the complications stemming from the conflict between Turkey and Armenia have a negative impact on the region. The resolution considered by the US Congress is certainly not helpful and may exacerbate the situation. The issue could affect Georgia indirectly, for example if it results in a radicalization of the relationships between Armenia and Turkey or Turkey and the West.

The third speaker, Dr. Baguirov, underscored the strong Azeri opposition to the proposed congressional resolution. Azerbaijan attributes a high importance to the issue, having released a statement almost immediately after the decision was passed in the US Congress. This is quite unusual, given that the country was not a direct author of the events of 1915/1920. In addition, as early as 1998, Azerbaijan itself made claims about Armenia committing genocide of its citizens in Nagorno-Karabakh.

On Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Dr. Baguirov noted these are not closed because of the genocide. Rather, events in Nagorno-Karabakh between 1989 and 1991 were the reason behind the closure of the border with Azerbaijan. The Turkish-Armenian border had been open for a year and a half until it was closed in 1993 over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. However, Turkey and Armenia continue to have sizeable trade relations, which are carried out through Georgia. While the land border remains closed, there are commercial flights from Yerevan to Istanbul. The Armenia community in Turkey, at about 70,000 to 90,000 people, has grown since the collapse of the Soviet Union by the illegal immigration of 60,000 Armenian workers.

With only about half the per-capita GDP of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia should have an interest in strong economic development. In Dr. Baguirov’s view, a hardening stance on the issue of genocide by Armenia will only entrench regional divisions. He pointed out that to this day, Armenian archives remain closed to most researchers while similar institutions in Turkey have been open since 1925.

Concluding his remarks, Dr. Baguirov argued that the country’s diaspora should shift its current preoccupation with genocide to economic prosperity. He mentioned the results of several opinion polls conducted in Armenia, all of which show an increasing discontent of the population over recent years. Up to two thirds of Armenians are unhappy with the direction of their government and are pessimistic about the future of their country.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute was founded in 1996 and has grown to be the primary institution in the Washington area for the study of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Caspian Region. The Institute forms part of a Joint Center with the Silk Road Studies Program at the Institute for Security and Development, Stockholm. The Institute sponsors impartial research on the region, acts as a forum for policymakers both in Washington and abroad, shares information concerning the region and provides access for its sponsors in business to relevant expertise on the region. Additional information about the Institute is available at www.silkroadstudies.org.