Click HERE to download this 100-page report in PDF format

Executive Summary

Since 1993, there has been a thirty-fold increase in heroin seizures in Central Asia. The social pathology of organized crime, which supervises and carries out illicit drug trafficking to Russia and Western countries as well as the laundering of illegal proceeds, has grown to become a significant threat to the regional states. So far, law enforcement agencies have proven unable to formulate, let alone implement, adequate measures against this threat. The scale and multi-faceted nature of the struggle against narcotics in the region has not been matched by a serious analytical forecasting effort to understand its development. Without such analysis, it is impossible to obtain a full understanding of the situation and planning for relevant time frames while determining the purpose and objectives of counter-narcotics policy. Moreover, this analysis is required to determine priorities in counter-narcotics and the range of their institutionalization.

This analysis of the drug situation in Central Asia over the last few years reveals a large expansion that poses an escalating danger to the stable and secure development of the Central Asian region. The situation in the sphere of illegal trafficking in Central Asia is exacerbated by a negative societal situation that has intensified a sense of desperation and hopelessness especially among exposed layers of population, in turn leading to increased addiction problems.

Among other issues, drug trafficking is considered to be an essential source of income for international terrorism, and the coalition powers in Afghanistan have so far been unable to effectively deal with the issue. Nevertheless, the struggle against drug trafficking in Afghanistan is closely associated with the settlement of a range of social and economic problems, primary among which is political stability. Huge drug markets in Russia, Europe and China have developed into stable consumption countries, stimulating supply. Furthermore, the lack of political stability in Central Asia and the weakness of the regional states makes countries vulnerable to international drug trafficking.

It is apparent that the forces involved in drug trafficking are interested in regional instability that permits their business to continue, implying that these groups pose significant security challenges. The vast profits gained from the drug trade have served to support militant forces with links to global terrorism, indicating a threat not only to the countries in Central Asia but beyond the region. In sum, the deteriorating drug situation increases the risk of the region becoming a cauldron of instability.

That said, The Central Asian countries still have the possibility to contain drug addiction and trafficking at levels that do not pose vital threats to society and state. However, if the tendencies in drug addiction and trafficking continue as presently without a reasonable and well-directed state policy, the chances of seeing the drug situation stabilized over the next three years are low.

The most likely scenario is that the region will see a steady increase in the drug trade in the coming three to five years. Drug related criminal activity is therefore expected to rise at a level of 4-5%. As a result, the social systems will degenerate even more.  Less law-conscious people will be pushed into drug trafficking, which will increase the poverty level in the long run. Trafficking through ill-guarded borders will significantly increase. Lacking logistical support, law enforcement agencies will in general remain poorly trained and partly criminally infiltrated. This will consequently rise to pose an ever greater national security threat.

The main task of state counter-narcotics policy as a part of comprehensive security could be termed narcological security, a social condition achieved when drug addiction and drug-related crime do not present a threat to state and society. There are different ways to achieve narcological security, and the success of government drug policy depends on several factors. Sweden is a country that appears to have achieved narcological security, through a well-balanced approach to supply and demand reduction. On the other hand, excessively liberal or repressive policies have failed to generate desired results.

On the repressive side, a policy based on declaring war against drugs is distinguished by the prevalence of punitive and repressive measures while counteracting illegal drug circulation and drug abuse. The fallacies of this approach is illustrated by the U.S. now changing the priorities of its counter-narcotics policy. Likewise, Chinese efforts in their war on drugs focus increasingly on the prevention of drug usage among young people.

On the liberal side, policies focusing on the legalization of drugs convey great costs for society. The Netherlands and Switzerland legalized drug use many years ago, causing a close to unlimited supply of both soft and hard drugs. As a result, the drug situation is beyond the control of authorities, especially when noted that the Netherlands attracts drug dealers and addicts from countries with stricter drug policies. Despite the fact that legalizing reduces hidden drug addiction, it also leads to an expansion of overall rates of drug abuse, of illegal trafficking and of the general level of demand.

The Central Asian states have not yet reached a full understanding of their counter-narcotics strategies and policies. Work on demand reduction in society and on managing drug abuse is carried out unsystematically, without due state support. The system of treatment of drug addicts is in a most complicated situation, as the social rehabilitation of drug addicts under state supervision is not being carried out.

Public opinion on drug use is one of the major components included in any government’s efforts to fight drug addiction. The Swedish aim of a drug-free society is a high objective expressing society’s attitude toward narcotics. There, drug use remains a socially unaccepted form of behavior; therefore, drug abuse remains a marginal phenomenon. The Swedish drug-policy model is a model to follow for countries in which the vision of a drug-free society is widely accepted and seldom seriously questioned in the political arena or the media. Nevertheless, one of the most important enabling factors in the effectiveness of Swedish counter-narcotics policy is state-financed support for most governmental and non-governmental treatment and prophylactic measures.

The Central Asian counter-narcotics concept needs to recognize that success in fighting the drug problem requires a well-balanced approach based on a wide use of law-enforcement as well as preventive measures, directed to the achievement of total control of the problem by the state, resulting in a consistent reduction of its negative social consequences. A successful restrictive counter-narcotics policy uses a variety of harsh and liberal approaches combined with a complex strategy for both demand and supply reduction. Simultaneously, the social condemnation of drug addiction is expressed, which remains the essence of the counter-narcotics measures adopted.

The countries of Central Asia generally cling to restrictive counter-narcotics policies, although there are some differences among them in their legal and administrative nuances. The increasing danger of an expanding illegal drug trade requires the application of adequate and well-coordinated measures by all the Central Asian republics. The effectiveness of counter-narcotics policies depends mainly upon their uniformity and purposefulness. The major components in the implementation of counter-narcotics policy include: the observance of human rights and civil liberties; a realistic approach where achievable objectives are set; a wide scope of operations including the use of governmental organizations and NGOs; civil society involvement where cooperation between governmental institutions and public organizations, including religious and local communities, creates societal awareness rooting out drug use; and increased development of international cooperation. The Central Asian states have agreed that the effort to establish a “security belt” around Afghanistan is one of the long-term objectives.

Appropriate counter-narcotics policy begins by establishing a legal framework and prioritizing legislative initiatives. Like any other state policy, counter-narcotics must not only be adopted but implemented. Besides, the Central Asian countries should harmonize their counter-narcotics legislation in order to conduct cooperative and effective counter-narcotics policy. Several recommendations can be made for the improvement of drug-related legislation in the following areas: curtailing drug trafficking; preventing illegal drug use; treating and rehabilitating drug addicts; regulating the legal usage of drugs; and expanding international drug control cooperation. Improving the organizational basis of counter-narcotics efforts requires a functioning and effective system of control. Within this framework, it is necessary to determine the optimal balance of institutional and public control over the realization of counter-narcotics policy.

The states in Central Asia have made effort to work closer together in their attempt to solve their common narcotics problems. The Central Asian Community (CAC) has been established in order to increase regional cooperation and integration toward strengthening security in the region. Under the auspices of one or several great powers, cooperative mechanisms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have been created. Moreover, the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) has brought Central Asian states closer together with their southern neighbors in their effort to rebuild Afghanistan. All these organizations and initiatives have instigated nominal efforts to address drug trafficking, yet practical regional cooperation leaves much to be desired. Likewise, numerous other memoranda and agreements between the regional states aim at providing security and stability. The Silk Road Diplomacy doctrine launched by Kyrgyzstan’s president Akaev in 1999 represents a general road map for the region and in which direction the cooperation should move.

The lack of effective regional cooperation has given increased importance to international initiatives involving outside powers and organizations. The European Union seems so far not to consider the Eurasian drug problem as its own. Opium poppies remain the most sustainable crop in the remote and suffering Afghanistan, and the region’s only link with globalization. The UNODC has by default become the most active international actor in counter-narcotics.

The last ten years have shown that the repressive counter-narcotics policies of Central Asian states cannot work alone and in isolation. It should nevertheless be noted that cooperation between institutions has become much more effective. Drug control agreements are more of a declarative nature and are not observed properly, particularly in areas related to legal assistance, information exchange and controlled deliveries. The need for long-term planning is eminent.

In summary, Central Asian states have completed the first stage of formulating their counter-narcotics policy. However, there is still little interaction between law enforcement structures in the border and peripheral areas. In many ways cooperation remains merely declarative, information is only exchanged formally, the system of communication officers is dysfunctional and controlled deliveries do not occur frequently. Overall, it is clear that closer cooperation between the countries of Central Asia is needed. Governments need to find mechanisms for implementing agreements in their entirety, with adequate financial support, and to begin to harmonize their legal frameworks on countering drug trafficking, money laundering and human trafficking. All proposals that aim to straighten overall security in Central Asia rest on the ability of countries there to deepen their cooperation. Given that these threats to security and stability are held in common, they should be a force for unity rather than argument.

Analysis of the actions of Central Asian law enforcement agencies against drug trafficking holds little promise for an improvement of the situation in the near future. In fact, current trends suggest that it will worsen and the unfortunate facts is that drug-related crime is entrenching itself deeper into Central Asian societies and institutions. Established methods of countering the drug trade, legislation to attack it and research achievements that suggest methods to counter it all lag far behind the expansion of the drug trade, its changing methods, and its success in corrupting the state apparatus.

Finally, it should be noted that the states of Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, face a significant risk, in the longer term, of becoming illicit drug producers themselves. These Central Asian states, currently in a process of development, are in danger of choosing the wrong model for the formulation of their counter-narcotics policy. Therefore, international cooperation is not only a necessary condition for countering drug trafficking and organized crime, but it is also an important preventive instrument. Every country must recognize their vulnerability to transnational criminal organizations. To achieve the effective mitigation of the problems of drug trafficking and abuse, organized crime, and terrorism, economic growth must be a priority, including a central role for the development of infrastructure and devised social programs.